62 results found
  • Why does the world care about New Zealand? Lessons from the OECD

    Blog post
    Issue date: 16 Jun 2017

    “Coming from a country that has just recovered from a volatile housing market, I want to offer some suggestions for New Zealand...” We sat in an underground conference room, past two security checkpoints manned by camouflaged guards, edging the Bois de...

  • Why high income households get benefits

    Blog post
    Issue date: 23 Nov 2016

    Today's Staff Insights article presents selected demographic statistics for New Zealand by income quintile for the 2014/15 tax year. The article discusses the data, how to interpret it and some common misconceptions or questions we come across....

  • Competition and KiwiSaver: part 2 of 2

    Blog post
    Issue date: 1 Jun 2016

    The Treasury recently took an in-depth look at the market dynamics for KiwiSaver funds. In Part 2 of this two part article, we discuss possible explanations for the results of our analysis. The author appreciates the support of Jack Kwok in compiling...

  • Dividends from Mighty River Power, Meridian Energy and Genesis Energy: part 2 of 3

    Blog post
    Issue date: 15 Jun 2016

    In part 1, I showed that the dividends from the three electricity companies had significantly increased around the time that 49% of their shares were sold to investors, and the companies were listed on the stock exchange. I’ll now look at some reasons...

  • Dividends from Mighty River Power, Meridian Energy and Genesis Energy: part 3 of 3

    Blog post
    Issue date: 16 Jun 2016

    In my previous article on Air New Zealand, I mentioned the concept of risk as being important when considering returns. Risk is also relevant to the discussion about the dividends from the electricity companies. In this final part of this series of...

  • New Zealand Export Credit Office: Recent mandate and products changes

    Blog post
    Issue date: 28 Mar 2017

    This article explains the role of the New Zealand Export Credit Office (NZECO) and sets out the recent changes to NZECO’s mandate and products. Earlier last year, following a review by the Treasury, the Government approved updates to NZECO’s mandate and...

  • MEI Special Topic: March 2017 Business Talks

    Blog post
    Issue date: 4 Apr 2017

    In the second week of March, Treasury officials met with around 20 businesses in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch to discuss the outlook for the economy. The information gathered will be used to inform the Treasury’s 2017 Budget Economic and Fiscal...

  • Competition and KiwiSaver: part 1 of 2

    Blog post
    Issue date: 31 May 2016

    The Treasury recently took an in-depth look at the market dynamics for KiwiSaver funds. In Part 1 of a two part article, we discuss the competition aspects of the analysis. The author appreciates the support of Jack Kwok in compiling and presenting the...

  • MEI Special Topic: Recent Trends in Tax Revenue

    Blog post
    Issue date: 7 Mar 2017

    Core Crown tax revenue is currently around $70 billion a year and is forecast to increase to $90 billion by 2020/21. Tax revenue is by far the largest share of core Crown revenue ($76 billion in 2015/16) and is necessary to fund core Crown...

  • MEI Special Topic: CPI Inflation

    Blog post
    Issue date: 8 Feb 2017

    Annual Consumers Price Index (CPI) inflation rose from 0.4% to 1.3% in December 2016. This brings inflation back within the RBNZ's target band (of 1-3%) for the first time since 2014. The sudden rise in inflation was not limited to New Zealand – several...

  • The Crown's Investment in Air New Zealand: part 2 of 3

    Blog post
    Issue date: 18 May 2016

    The Crown's investment in Air New Zealand, part 2 In part 1 of this article, I estimated that the Crown has received a return of 8.4% per year from its shareholding in Air New Zealand, based on an internal rate of return (IRR) calculation as at 9 May...

  • The Crown’s Investment in Air New Zealand: part 3 of 3

    Blog post
    Issue date: 20 May 2016

    In November 2013, the Government sold 221.3 million shares in Air New Zealand at a price of $1.65 a share, receiving proceeds of $365.2 million. The Crown retained ownership of 582.9 million Air New Zealand shares, which at that date gave it a 53%...

  • Dividends from Mighty River Power, Meridian Energy and Genesis Energy: part 1 of 3

    Blog post
    Issue date: 14 Jun 2016

    There was some public discussion earlier this year of dividends from the majority government-owned electricity companies Mighty River Power, Meridian Energy and Genesis Energy. In this article I will look at what those dividends have been, and how they...

  • Are today's young people super savers or splurging spenders?

    Blog post
    Issue date: 19 Jul 2016

    It's commonplace to worry about the financial habits of today's young people, particularly about whether they save as much as they "should". But we actually have had very little information about the saving behaviour of people at different ages or of...

  • MEI Special Topic:  Implications of the Revised Household Labour Force Survey for the Economic Outlook

    Blog post
    Issue date: 3 Aug 2016

    Statistics New Zealand has redeveloped the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS), the official source of data on employment and unemployment. The revisions bring New Zealand data into line with the latest international standards (although not all...

  • The Crown-Māori Relationship: Insights from a Senior Public Servant

    Blog post
    Issue date: 30 Aug 2016

    In this short article, published in the Māori Law Review,[1] Ivan Kwok shares his views on the Crown-Māori relationship. Ivan is one of Treasury's most senior and respected Principal Advisors. Ivan Kwok joined The Treasury in 1975 and spent 15 years as...

  • MEI Special Topic: Implications of Brexit for the New Zealand economy

    Blog post
    Issue date: 5 Jul 2016

    On 23 June, the UK voted 52% to 48% in a referendum to leave the EU ("Brexit"). Although the referendum was regarded as binding, it will require parliamentary approval to activate Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which sets out the procedure for...

  • Taking age into account

    Blog post
    Issue date: 18 Apr 2017

    I sometimes wonder if my two kids, born in the late-1980s, will be part of a generation that won't have the economic resources, income and assets, in their middle age as my generation had. There is a sense that compared with the Baby Boomers, many of...

  • MEI Special Topic: Illustrating Forecast Uncertainty

    Blog post
    Issue date: 2 May 2017

    The Treasury publishes economic forecasts at least twice during the year. These forecasts are communicated as a central track which represents our view of the most likely path the economy will take over a forecast horizon. However, forecast uncertainty...

  • Half-year Financial Results for State-owned Enterprises and Airports

    Blog post
    Issue date: 7 Apr 2017

    This article provides an overview of State-owned Enterprises’ (SOEs’) and the Christchurch, Dunedin and Hawke’s Bay airports’ published six months financial results (the six months to 31 December 2016).[1] These entities form part of the portfolio of...

  • Chinese-New Zealand investment flows

    Blog post
    Issue date: 4 May 2016

    Modelling an illustrative scenario of Chinese capital market liberalisation suggests Chinese-NZ investment flows will increase significantly over the next few decades and most of the increase in flows will occur in portfolio and other flows. Foreign...

  • MEI Special Topic: Implications of Kaikōura earthquakes for the New Zealand economy

    Blog post
    Issue date: 7 Dec 2016

    A magnitude 7.8 earthquake occurred in North Canterbury just after midnight on 14 November causing extensive damage and some loss of life in the Kaikōura and adjoining regions. The town of Kaikōura, which is an important tourist centre and on the main...

  • 'Sum Insured' cover for household insurance - what are the risks?

    Blog post
    Issue date: 9 May 2016

    This article sets out the issues arising from the widespread move to 'sum insured' cover for house insurance and assesses the risks this may pose to New Zealand. The move to 'sum insured' cover for home insurance policies in recent years represented a...

  • The Crown's Investment in Air New Zealand: part 1 of 3

    Blog post
    Issue date: 16 May 2016

    On 18 January 2002, the New Zealand Government invested $892 million in Air New Zealand, giving the Crown an 82% ownership stake in the company. A further $149 million was invested in Air New Zealand in a rights issue in December 2004, taking the...

  • MEI Special Topic: New Zealand's goods and services trade flows

    Blog post
    Issue date: 3 Jul 2017

    Treasury Staff Insights: Rangitaki article by the Forecasting team This Special Topic provides an overview of New Zealand's trade composition and discusses some of the implications for the wider economy. In the year to March 2017, New Zealand...

  • Outlook for the Dairy Sector

    Blog post
    Issue date: 7 Jun 2016

    This Staff Insight article outlines the Treasury's current understanding of global dairy supply and demand and their implications for the outlook for dairy prices. The article also presents some modelling of aggregate New Zealand dairy farm revenues,...

  • Budget 2016: Improving transparency and accessibility of Budget information

    Blog post
    Issue date: 21 Jun 2016

    New Zealand's Budgeting practices rate well internationally in terms of transparency and accountability. The 2015 Open Budget Survey, an independent assessment covering over 100 countries, has given New Zealand the top ranking for transparency since 2012...

  • MEI Special Topic:  Why has the current account deficit remained moderate?

    Blog post
    Issue date: 6 Sep 2016

    The average size of deficits recorded in the current account of the balance of payments has been relatively low in recent years. During the same period New Zealand's net external liability position has decreased from 80% of GDP to 60%. These...

  • Economic impacts of foreign direct investment

    Blog post
    Issue date: 16 Aug 2016

    In October 2015 the Government published a report, International Investment for Growth, which sets out the benefits of foreign investment for New Zealand. The analysis in this article informed aspects of that report. International Investment...

  • A snapshot of Government-owned commercial entity AsureQuality

    Blog post
    Issue date: 30 May 2017

    This article provides a high level overview of AsureQuality (AQ), a 100% government owned entity specialising in food safety and biosecurity services to the food and primary production sectors. The blog covers both entity specific information as well as...

  • The Treasury’s Pacific Engagement

    Blog post
    Issue date: 14 Oct 2016

    In this article, Su'a Thomsen shares his views on the Treasury's pacific engagement programme. Treasury's Living Standards Framework recognises that engagement of all New Zealanders in all facets of the economy and society is necessary for a robust,...

  • MEI Special Topic:  Key Judgements for the Economic Outlook

    Blog post
    Issue date: 1 Nov 2016

    Over the first half of 2016 the economy grew at a faster pace than was expected in the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (the Budget Update), as did tax revenue. Forward indicators suggest this momentum has been sustained over the second half of the year...

  • How to get an export take-off?

    Blog post
    Issue date: 21 Sep 2016

    The New Zealand Government is targeting an increase in the ratio of real exports to GDP to 40 percent by 2025.  To shed some light on what drives these transitions we looked at episodes to export increases in developed economies to see if there are...

  • New Zealand on top of the world for ease of doing business

    Blog post
    Issue date: 15 Mar 2017

    New Zealand always ranks highly in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business report. This year, we have come out first. What has brought about this change? Have we still got room for improvement? Every year, the World Bank publishes its Ease of Doing...

  • MEI Special Topic: Adjusting for level shifts in labour market data

    Blog post
    Issue date: 30 Aug 2017

    This Special Topic uses estimates to re-estimate recent trends in employment growth, hours worked and labour productivity (GDP per hour worked). Statistics New Zealand updated the design of the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) in the June 2016...

  • MEI Special Topic: New Zealand Household Debt

    Blog post
    Issue date: 5 Oct 2016

    Debt, and household debt in particular, garnered considerable attention earlier in the year. This special topic provides an overview of household debt developments following the release by the Reserve Bank in September of its latest household balance...