Formats and related files
This paper investigates the implications of population ageing and changes in labour force participation rates for projections of revenue obtained from personal income taxation and a consumption tax (in the form of a broad-based goods and services tax). A projection model is presented, involving changing age-income profiles over time for males and females. The model is estimated and applied to New Zealand over the period 2011-2062.
We are grateful to Matt Benge, Iris Claus, Peter Mawson and Paul Rodway for comments on an earlier draft of this paper.
The views, opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Working Paper are strictly those of the author(s). They do not necessarily reflect the views of the New Zealand Treasury or the New Zealand Government. The New Zealand Treasury and the New Zealand Government take no responsibility for any errors or omissions in, or for the correctness of, the information contained in these working papers. The paper is presented not as policy, but with a view to inform and stimulate wider debate.
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Tax Revenue and Population Ageing
- 2.2 GST Revenue
- 3.2 Estimates for New Zealand
- 4 Income Tax Revenue
- 4.3 Income Tax Revenue Growth in NZ
- 5 Consumption Tax Revenue
- 5.2 Non-Taxable Income Profiles
- 5.3 Consumption Tax Revenue Growth
- 6 Average Effective Tax Rates
- 7 Capital Income Tax Revenue
- 8 Conclusions
- 3 Cohort Income Profiles
- 4.2 A Multi-Step Tax Function