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Working paper

Past, Present and Future Developments in New Zealand's Terms of Trade (WP 06/09)

Issue date: 
Saturday, 1 July 2006
View point: 
Publication category: 
JEL classification: 
E30 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
F10 - Trade: General
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies

Formats and related files

This paper looks at the importance of the terms of trade for the New Zealand economy by examining the impact of changes in the trend and volatility of the terms of trade on economic growth.


I would like to gratefully acknowledge the help of Bob Buckle for comments on an earlier draft. I would also like to thank Arthur Grimes, John Ballingall, Craig Beaumont, Patrick Conway, Khoon Goh, Richard Downing, and Alex Harrington for their helpful comments as well as Kam Szeto and Dean Hyslop for their help with some empirical tests. Finally I would like to thank Daniel Lawrence and Rob Davison for their help with data. Of course all remaining errors are my own.


The views, opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Working Paper are strictly those of the author(s). They do not necessarily reflect the views of the New Zealand Treasury. The Treasury takes no responsibility for any errors or omissions in, or for the correctness of, the information contained in these working papers. The paper is presented not as policy, but with a view to inform and stimulate wider debate.

Last updated: 
Tuesday, 23 October 2007