New Zealand Labour Market Dynamics: Pre- and Post-global Financial Crisis (WP 14/03)

Abstract

A persistent increase in the unemployment rate ignites speculations about whether the changes to unemployment are structural or cyclical. The New Zealand economy has been through major restructuring since the mid-1980s. The labour market's institutional changes were the last in the sequence of these reforms. As reforms began to take effect and expectations adjusted, unemployment in New Zealand has declined steadily and persistently since 1993-1994. Along the way, however, transitory increases in unemployment occurred. Major increases occurred after the Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis with similar dynamics.

Acknowledgements

Thank you to Nick Carroll, Mario DiMaio, Grant Scobie, and Gerald Minnee for their comments. Also thank you to Linda Cameron, Brian Sliverstone and an anonymous referee for valuable comments.

Disclaimer

The views, opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Working Paper are strictly those of the author(s). They do not necessarily reflect the views of the New Zealand Treasury or the New Zealand Government. The New Zealand Treasury and the New Zealand Government take no responsibility for any errors or omissions in, or for the correctness of, the information contained in these working papers. The paper is presented not as policy, but with a view to inform and stimulate wider debate.