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Working paper

An Analysis of Tax Revenue Forecast Errors (WP 07/02)

Issue date: 
Thursday, 1 March 2007
View point: 
Publication category: 
JEL classification: 
C53 - Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
E17 - General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
H68 - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
Fiscal year: 

Formats and related files

Over the past six years, Treasury tax forecasts, and the macroeconomic forecasts on which they are based, have underestimated the actual outturns. This report presents an analysis of the Treasury’s tax revenue forecast errors, both in aggregate and disaggregated by individual tax type.


We gratefully acknowledge the assistance and support received from our colleagues within the New Zealand Treasury, particularly Bob Buckle, John Carran, Katy Henderson, Dean Hyslop, John Janssen, Daniel Lawrence, Kam Szeto, Wayne Tan, and everyone else within the Treasury who has taken an interest in this research.


This document was commissioned by the New Zealand Treasury.  However, the views, opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in it are strictly those of the authors, do not necessarily represent and should not be reported as those of the New Zealand Treasury.  The New Zealand Treasury takes no responsibility for any errors, omissions in, or for the correctness of, the information contained in this Paper.

Last updated: 
Friday, 18 July 2008