Weekly economic update

Weekly Economic Update - 25 September 2020

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Weekly Economic Update 25 September 2020#

Additional gathering restrictions have eased in Auckland and the rest of NZ has moved to Alert Level 1. The New Zealand Activity Index shows an easing in activity in August as restrictions were reinstated, though electronic card spending data suggest that spending has since recovered to levels similar to those seen during Alert Level 1. The Reserve Bank held the OCR steady, noting that additional monetary policy tools are in development. A fall in imports over the year led to the largest annual trade surplus since 2014, and Fonterra confirmed its 2019/20 season payout.

The number of new cases of COVID-19 has started increasing again in a number of countries in Western Europe. Flash Purchasing Managers' Indices for September showed that the recovery in developed countries has continued, but the pace of growth slowed in a number of regions, and the services sector returned to contractionary territory in the euro area.

In a special topic, the Treasury explores the June quarter GDP result and re-assesses its estimates of economic activity under various alert levels.

Alert Levels eased…#

Additional gathering restrictions in Auckland were removed on Thursday, but the city remains in Alert Level 2 while the rest of the country has moved to Alert Level 1. There are 34 active COVID-19 cases in the community and 31 active cases in managed isolation at the border.

Figure 1: Daily COVID-19 tests and cases by source

Figure 1: Daily COVID-19 tests and cases by source

Source: Ministry of Health

…and spending largely recovers#

Card spending data suggest that spending has recovered this week, though Auckland remains slightly below the Alert Level 1 average (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Electronic card spending by region

Figure 2: Electronic card spending by region

Source: Paymark and Verifone data via Data Ventures

The recovery in spending was broad-based across industries, though spending on apparel, motor vehicles, hospitality and services remains below their Alert Level 1 averages (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Electronic card spending by industry

Figure 3: Electronic card spending by industry

Source: Paymark and Verifone data via Data Ventures

Income support numbers fall slightly#

In the week to 18 September, the number of people receiving the COVID-19 Income Relief Payment (CIRP) fell by 1,663 as more payments ended. Jobseeker support recipients increased by 1,498. The total number of income support recipients (Jobseeker and CIRP) fell slightly to 216,850.

Activity eased in August…#

The reinstatement of higher alert levels in August contributed to the New Zealand Activity Index (NZAC) showing a 1.4% reduction in activity for the month of August 2020 compared to August 2019 (Figure 4). Most constituent indicators fell below levels recorded a year ago, with electronic card spending and light traffic movements down 3.5% and 3.4% respectively. Previously, the NZAC had indicated that activity had largely returned to activity levels recorded a year ago by June 2020. This month's release supports our view that the return to higher alert levels in mid-August, following the re-emergence of community transmission of COVID-19 in Auckland, will dampen the rebound in GDP in the September 2020 quarter.

Figure 4: NZAC and GDP

Figure 4: NZAC and GDP

Sources: Stats NZ, the Treasury

…and the Official Cash Rate was unchanged#

In a widely anticipated move, the Reserve bank left monetary policy settings unchanged at the September 2020 Monetary Policy Review. The Official Cash Rate (OCR) remains at 0.25% and the Large Scale Asset Purchase Programme remains at $100 billion. The Reserve Bank noted the weak underlying international and domestic economic conditions and indicated that various alternative monetary policy tools are in development. These include a Funding for Lending Programme, a negative OCR and purchases of foreign assets. The Monetary Policy Committee agreed they are prepared to provide additional stimulus. There was limited market reaction to the announcement.

New Zealand's trade surplus increased…#

The annual trade balance recorded a $1.3 billion surplus in August, its strongest level since the August 2014 year (Figure 5), led by a $1 billion fall in imports. Demand for imports has been much lower in recent months compared to a year ago as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, while exports have fared better. With global demand expected to weaken over this half of the year, the terms of trade is expected to encounter some downward pressure. As demand for imports recovers, this is expected to result in a weakening in the merchandise trade balance.

The monthly seasonally adjusted trade surplus increased to $845 million in August from $486 million in July. Exports of goods grew 16.3% from July compared with a 9.9% increase of goods imports. While a historically high level, this month's trade balance was influenced by ‘exports' of aircraft sent to the United States for long-term storage as a result of border restrictions limiting international travel demand. However, exports of other items were also up, with fruit exports up lifting 9%, driven by quantity and price movements.

Figure 5: Overseas merchandise trade balance

Figure 5: Overseas merchandise trade balance

Source: Stats NZ

…and Fonterra confirmed its pay out#

Fonterra confirmed a $7.19 per kilogram of milk solid (kgMS) cash payout for its farmers for the 2019/20 milk season, consisting of a $7.14 farm-gate milk price and a 5-cent per share dividend. Strong dairy prices and improved business performance during 2019 helped offset some of the COVID-19-related turbulence in the first half of 2020. The outlook from here remains uncertain, and Fonterra maintained its previous 2020/21 season forecast Farmgate Milk price range of $5.90-$6.90 per kgMS.

Special Topic#

This week, we present a special topic on page 6 and 7 looking at the June quarter GDP result and re-assessing our estimates of economic activity within industries under various alert levels.

Flash PMIs indicate slow recovery in September#

This week saw the release of flash Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) for September, which are based on around 85% of final survey responses. Most major economies remained above 50 at the end of the quarter, which indicates expansion, but the pace of growth slowed in a number of regions.

Australia's composite index edged back to expansionary territory, in line with a loosening in restrictions in some parts of the country. The improvement was driven by the manufacturing sector. Although demand conditions improved, the employment component continued to deteriorate.

Figure 6: Composite PMIs, selected countries

Figure 6: Composite PMIs, selected countries

Source: Haver

Japan's composite PMI remained in contractionary territory, and weakness in the new orders component suggests that the recovery will remain under pressure in the coming months. The pace of growth slowed sharply in the euro area. The manufacturing component increased strongly to a 31-month high, but the services component moved back into contractionary territory, as rising COVID-19 infections have resulted in a tightening of restrictions on customer-facing businesses. Germany continued to lead the overall recovery, while business activity in France deteriorated for the first time in four months. The composite index declined slightly in the United States (US), but remained firmly in expansionary territory. A slight decline in the services component was more than offset by an increase in the manufacturing component to a 20-month high.

Further signs of slowing growth in US#

There have been more signs that the pace of recovery in the US has slowed towards the end of the third quarter. The Chicago Fed's national activity index for August fell to 0.8 from 2.5 in the previous month. A value of zero indicates that the economy is expanding at its historic trend growth rate. The housing market remains strong though, with sales of existing homes reaching the highest level since 2006. Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned in his testimony to Congress that the pace of recovery remains highly uncertain and that it depends on the path of the virus and fiscal policies.

New COVID-19 cases increasing in Europe#

New cases of COVID-19 have started increasing again in a number of countries in Western Europe. However, at least part of the increase in case numbers may be attributed to increased testing rates compared to March - April. The number of deaths also appears to be much lower than in previous waves of infection, possibly because vulnerable groups are choosing to self-isolate. This puts less pressure on governments to reinstate economically costly nationwide lockdowns. In the United Kingdom, however, the rate of increase in new cases has been quite high, prompting the government to tighten some restrictions. In particular, Prime Minister Johnson asked people to work from home if they could and said that pubs and restaurants have to close at 10pm. There will also be restrictions on gathering sizes. Unless sufficient progress is made in containing the spread of the virus, the new restrictions could be in place for six months.

Australian central bank outlines policy options#

The deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Guy Debelle, said in a speech this week that the bank continues to assess alternative policy options at every meeting. These include buying bonds further out along the curve, intervening in the foreign exchange market to weaken the currency, cutting the policy interest rate, and negative rates.

Date Key NZ Data Previous (apc)
30 Sept Building consents 6.0 % (annual)
30 Sept ANZ Business Outlook -26% (prelim)
2 Oct ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence 100.2

High-Frequency Indicators (Domestic)#

Traffic Movement#

Traffic Movement

Source: Waka Kotahi NZ Transport Agency

Freight Movement#

Freight Movement

Source: Waka Kotahi NZ Transport Agency

Electricity Demand#

Electricity Demand

Source: Electricity Authority

Retail Spending#

Retail Spending

Source: Paymark and Verifone data via Data Ventures

Jobseeker and Income Support Recipients#

Jobseeker and Income Support Recipients

Source: MSD

Fiscal Support: Wage Subsidy (paid)#

Fiscal Support: Wage Subsidy (paid)

Source: MSD

High-Frequency Indicators (Global)#

Trade Weighted Index#

Trade Weighted Index

Source: RBNZ

Volatility Index#

Volatility Index

Source: Haver

US Activity and Equities#

US Activity and Equities

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Haver

Labour Markets#

Labour Markets

Source: Haver

COVID-19 Cases#

COVID-19 Cases

Sources: World Health Organisation/Haver

World Commodity Prices#

World Commodity Prices

Source: ASB

Special Topic: COVID-19 and economic activity#

The impacts of COVID-19 and its associated control measures on the economy will remain uncertain for some time. Nevertheless, new data enable us to re-examine previous assumptions and gain new insights.

With the usual lags associated with the production of annual GDP data, it will be several years until the most comprehensive and consistent data become available that includes the June quarter of 2020. Therefore, it remains important to highlight that data remains subject to revision, particularly at the industry level.

Overall, the release of June quarter GDP last week showed an initial estimate of the fall in economic activity in New Zealand that was the largest on record. The decline in real GDP of around 12% was, however, not as large as in the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) and earlier bank economists' expectations.

Smaller impacts at the various alert levels#

Underpinning the forecast 16% decline in PREFU was the assumption that the economy would be operating below normal at the different alert levels, in particular, approximately:

  • 35% below at Alert Level 4
  • 20% below at Alert Level 3
  • 10% below at Alert Level 2
  • 5% below at Alert Level 1.

These assumptions represented the combined impact on GDP of the presence of COVID-19 in New Zealand and abroad, as well as the various restrictions and support measures available at each alert level. They involved considerable judgement about which industries were likely to be the most affected and the scale of those effects.

Updated Alert Level 4 impact of around -25%#

As noted in PREFU, a tentative estimate of the Alert Level 4 impact can be inferred from March quarter data. With the relatively short period of time at Alert Level 4 in the March quarter (6 days[1]) such estimates are unlikely to be precise, but we noted in PREFU that the initial March quarter results suggested a Level 4 impact of closer to 30% than 40%. The latest GDP data saw the March quarter fall in real GDP revised slightly smaller. This suggests, still with a high degree of uncertainty that during Alert Level 4 activity was around 25% below normal levels.

What did the June quarter GDP result tell us?#

The alert level assumptions used in PREFU were based on assessments of the likely reduction in economic activity for 32 industry groupings. An summary of these assumptions is presented in Table 1 (note that individual industry alert level estimates are rounded to the nearest 5%), together with a quarter average based on the amount of time spent at each alert level over the June quarter. This is compared to our estimate of the extent to which actual June quarter GDP deviated from normal[2].

Our PREFU prediction of a 16% decline in June quarter GDP, combined with the 1.4% decline in the March quarter, and assuming “normal” growth over 2 quarters of around 1.5%, resulted in our estimate that the level of GDP in the June quarter would have been around 19% lower than normal. This compares with our estimate that the GDP outturn was 15% lower than normal in the June quarter.

Table 1: Alert level activity declines (percentage)

Table 1: Alert level activity declines (percentage)

Source: The Treasury

Our estimates of industry level activity in the primary, manufacturing, construction, and electricity, gas water and waste services industries were consistent with the eventual June quarter outturns. Our estimates of activity across the services industries had assumed a greater impact than in fact occurred, in particular in the wholesale, retail and other services industries. Higher than anticipated levels of consumer spending meant our estimates for retail and wholesale activity were too pessimistic, and activity across a range of professional services industries was also higher than anticipated, potentially as a result of firms making greater use of technology to allow working from home.

High frequency indicators also act as a guide#

A range of high frequency indicators are also available that allow us to look at the likely impact of being at different alert levels (Figure 7).

Figure 7: High frequency indicators by Alert Level

Figure 7: High frequency indicators by Alert Level

Sources: NZTA, Marketview

Daily card spending data across the June quarter showed June quarter spending around 22% below the average pre-COVID spend since the same time last year (Table 2). This partial data contrasts with the more comprehensive Electronic Cards Transactions data that showed a 25% reduction over the same period.

Table 2: High frequency indicators over June quarter

Table 2: High frequency indicators over June quarter

Sources: NZTA, Paymark and Verifone data via Data Ventures

Daily heavy and light vehicle transport indicators also pointed to larger impacts than were eventually seen in the final GDP numbers, highlighting the difficulty using partial (albeit timely) indicators to assess aggregate impacts.

As discussed in the weekly commentary above, the NZAC is a monthly composite index that tracks activity across a number of economic measures. The NZAC fell sharply in April to be 20.6% below its April 2019 level. With the easing in alert level restrictions, the NZAC rebounded considerably in May but was still 5.9% below its May 2019 level, while June activity recovered to levels seen a year ago.

While the level of the impacts from these partial high frequency indicators may not provide accurate indicators of the level of activity, the path of the indicators within the quarter provides a good sense-check on the relative impacts of differing alert levels.

Latest impact estimates#

Table 3 presents indicative industry alert level assumptions based on the June quarter GDP result. Given the uncertainty of estimates, figures are rounded to the nearest 5 percent.

Table 3: Revised industry alert level assumptions

Table 3: Revised industry alert level assumptions

Source: The Treasury

We will update our overall assumptions of the Alert Level impacts in the Half Year Update in December. The above analysis suggests that further revisions towards smaller impacts are likely to be appropriate. In particular, assumptions closer to the negative impacts below may be appropriate:

  • 25% - 30% below at Alert Level 4 (PREFU 35%)
  • 15% - 20% below at Alert Level 3 (PREFU 20%)
  • 6% - 10% below at Alert Level 2 (PREFU 10%)
  • 3% - 5% below at Alert Level 1 (PREFU 5%).

Such assumptions would be consistent with a rebound in real GDP of around 7% to 10% in the September quarter. Overall, this means that the smaller-than-forecast June quarter GDP decline is expected to be followed by a smaller rebound than incorporated in PREFU. This would still leave the level of GDP slightly ahead of forecast.

We assume that Alert Level 1 is in place from the December 2020 quarter until 1 January 2022, after which border restrictions are removed. The lower Alert Level impact assumption, if realised, therefore provides a (relatively small) degree of upside risk. As illustrated in the ‘Earlier recovery in services exports' scenario in PREFU, earlier or more effective safe travel zones provide another source of upside risk.

Any need to return to higher alert levels remains a key downside risk, particularly if this were to include a significant period of time at the higher two alert levels. Given COVID-19 developments here and abroad, this risk is not insignificant and balances the upside risk in current economic data.

Notes

  1. [1] See https://covid19.govt.nz/alert-system/alert-system-overview/ for details of the periods spent at different alert levels.
  2. [2] The estimate of “normal” June quarter GDP in the absence of COVID-19 was derived using December 2019 quarter GDP estimates rated forward by the 10-year average quarterly growth rates for each industry.

Tables#

Quarterly Indicators   2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2
Real Production GDP1 qpc 0.4 0.1 0.7 0.5 -1.4 -12.2
  aapc 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.3 1.5 -2.0
Current account balance (annual) %GDP -4.0 -3.8 -3.8 -3.4 -2.9 -1.9
Merchandise terms of trade apc -1.9 -1.0 0.9 7.1 5.4 6.5
CPI  inflation qpc 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.8 -0.5
  apc 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.9 2.5 1.5
Employment (HLFS)1 qpc -0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.0 -0.4
Unemployment rate1 % 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.0
Participation rate1 % 70.3 70.3 70.4 70.1 70.5 69.7
LCI salary & wage rates - total2 apc 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.1
QES average hourly earnings - total2 apc 3.4 4.4 4.2 3.6 3.6 3.0
Core retail sales volume apc 3.9 3.6 5.4 3.3 4.0 -11.7
Total retail sales volume apc 3.3 2.9 4.5 3.3 2.3 -14.2
WMM - consumer confidence3 Index 103.8 103.5 103.1 109.9 104.2 97.2
QSBO - general business situation1,4 net% -27.0 -30.7 -38.0 -28.6 -68.0 -58.8
QSBO - own activity outlook1,4 net% 5.3 -2.0 -0.2 4.1 -13.9 -24.8
Monthly Indicators   Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20
Merchandise trade balance (12 month total) NZ$m -3,382 -2,393 -1,274 -1,129 51 1,340
Dwelling consents - residential apc -8.3 -16.5 -4.4 20.4 -0.8 ...
House sales - dwellings apc 2.7 -77.2 -44.3 11.7 28.6 24.8
REINZ - house price index apc 9.0 8.6 7.0 7.6 9.3 10.1
Estimated net migration (12 month total) people 89,608 87,837 85,359 82,649 76,191 ...
ANZ NZ commodity price index apc 5.8 0.9 -1.3 -2.9 0.2 -3.8
ANZ world commodity price index apc -5.8 -9.2 -8.1 -5.7 -1.5 -2.7
ANZBO - business confidence net% -63.5 -66.6 -41.8 -34.4 -31.8 -41.8
ANZBO - activity outlook net% -26.7 -55.1 -38.7 -25.9 -8.9 -17.5
ANZ-Roy Morgan - consumer confidence net% 106.3 84.8 97.3 104.5 104.3 100.2
Weekly Benefit Numbers   7 Aug 14 Aug 21 Aug 28 Aug 4 Sep 11 Sep
Jobseeker Support number 193,094 193,997 195,495 197,227 198,929 200,776
Work Ready number 124,679 125,076 126,225 127,615 129,013 130,318
Health Condition and Disability number 68,415 68,921 69,270 69,612 69,916 70,458
COVID-19 Income Relief Payment number 21,988 22,834 24,053 24,811 18,608 16,236
Full-time number 19,745 20,518 21,528 22,221 16,609 14,485
Part-time number 2,243 2,316 2,525 2,590 1,999 1,751
Daily Indicators   Wed
16/9/20
Thu
17/9/20
Fri
18/9/20
Mon
21/9/20
Tue
22/9/20
Wed
23/9/20
NZ exchange and interest rates5              
NZD/USD $ 0.6723 0.6690 0.6773 0.6769 0.6671 0.6609
NZD/AUD $ 0.9193 0.9202 0.9253 0.9267 0.9247 0.9255
Trade weighted index (TWI) index 72.3 72.0 72.7 72.6 71.9 71.5
Official cash rate (OCR) % 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
90 day bank bill rate % 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30
10 year govt bond rate % 0.60 0.58 0.55 0.54 0.53 0.51
Share markets6              
Dow Jones index 28,032 27,902 27,657 27,148 27,288 26,763
S&P 500 index 3,385 3,357 3,319 3,281 3,316 3,237
VIX volatility index index 26.0 26.5 25.8 27.8 26.9 28.6
AU all ords index 6,147 6,069 6,058 6,014 5,973 6,111
NZX 50 index 11,815 11,777 11,634 11,539 11,609 11,705
US interest rates              
3 month OIS % 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 ...
3 month Libor % 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 ...
10 year govt bond rate % 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.68 0.68 0.68
Commodity prices6              
WTI oil US$/barrel 40.16 40.97 41.09 39.26 39.55 39.93
Gold US$/ounce 1,962 1,936.25 1,950.85 1,909.35 1,906.00 1,873.40
CRB Futures index 407 408.32 410.13 407.80 406.93 ...

Data in Italic font are provisional.
... Not available.

(1) Seasonally Adjusted
(2) Ordinary time, all sectors
(3) Westpac McDermott Miller
(4) Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion
(5) Reserve Bank (11am)
(6) Daily close

Country Indicator   Feb 20 Mar 20 2020
Q1
Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 2020
Q2
Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20
United
States

[9.6%
share of
total goods
exports]
GDP1 qpc     -1.3       -9.1      
Industrial production1 mpc 0.1 -4.4   -12.9 1.0 6.1   3.5 0.4 ...
CPI apc 2.3 1.5   0.3 0.1 0.6   1.0 1.3 ...
Unemployment rate1 % 3.5 4.4   14.7 13.3 11.1   10.2 8.4 ...
Employment change1 000s 251.0 -1373.0   -20787.0 2725.0 4781.0   1734.0 1371.0 ...
Retail sales value apc 4.5 -5.6   -19.9 -5.6 2.2   2.4 2.6 ...
House prices2 apc 3.5 3.9   3.9 3.6 3.5   ... ... ...
PMI manufacturing1 index 50.1 49.1   41.5 43.1 52.6   54.2 56.0 ...
Consumer confidence1,3 index 132.6 118.8   85.7 85.9 98.3   91.7 84.8 ...
Japan
[6.1%]
GDP1 qpc     -0.6       -7.9      
Industrial production1 mpc -0.3 -3.7   -9.8 -8.9 1.9   8.7 ... ...
CPI apc 0.5 0.4   0.2 0.0 0.1   0.4 0.1 ...
Unemployment rate1 % 2.4 2.5   2.6 2.9 2.8   2.9 ... ...
Retail sales value apc 1.6 -4.7   -13.9 -12.5 -1.3   -2.9 ... ...
PMI manufacturing1 index 47.8 44.8   41.9 38.4 40.1   45.2 47.2 ...
Consumer confidence1,4 index 38.2 31.1   21.3 24.1 28.5   29.5 29.3 ...
Euro area
[5.5%]
GDP1 qpc     -3.7       -11.8      
Industrial production1 mpc -0.1 -11.6   -18.0 12.2 9.5   4.1 ... ...
CPI apc 1.2 0.7   0.3 0.1 0.3   0.4 -0.2 ...
Unemployment rate1 % 7.3 7.2   7.4 7.5 7.7   7.9 ... ...
Retail sales volume apc 2.6 -8.1   -19.3 -2.6 1.3   0.4 ... ...
PMI manufacturing1 index 49.2 44.5   33.4 39.4 47.4   51.8 51.7 ...
Consumer confidence5 index -6.6 -11.6   -22.0 -18.8 -14.7   -15.0 -14.7 -13.9
United
Kingdom

[2.7%]
GDP1 qpc     -2.2       -20.4      
Industrial production1 mpc 0.3 -4.3   -20.4 6.2 9.4   5.2 ... ...
CPI apc 1.7 1.5   0.8 0.6 0.6   1.1 0.2 ...
Unemployment rate1 % 4.0 3.9   3.9 3.9 3.9   4.1 ... ...
Retail sales volume apc -0.2 -6.1   -22.7 -13.0 -1.6   1.4 2.8 ...
House prices6 apc 2.3 3.0   3.7 1.8 -0.1   1.5 3.7 ...
PMI manufacturing1 index 51.7 47.8   32.6 40.7 50.1   53.3 55.2 ...
Consumer confidence1,5 index -6.2 -8.2   -22.7 -23.7 -21.0   -16.6 -16.6 ...
Australia
[15.8%]
GDP1 qpc     -0.3       -7.0      
CPI apc     2.2       -0.3      
Unemployment rate1 % 5.1 5.2   6.4 7.1 7.4   7.5 6.8 ...
Retail sales value apc 5.7 9.4   -8.9 5.5 8.6   12.8 ... ...
House Prices7 apc     8.1       6.6      
PMI manufacturing1 index 44.3 53.7   35.8 41.6 51.5   53.5 49.3 ...
Consumer confidence8 index 95.5 91.9   75.6 88.1 93.7   87.9 79.5 93.8
China
[24.3%]
GDP apc     -6.8       3.2      
Industrial production apc -13.5 -1.1   3.9 4.4 4.8   4.8 5.6 ...
CPI apc 5.2 4.3   3.3 2.4 2.5   2.7 2.4 ...
PMI manufacturing1 index 35.7 52.0   50.8 50.6 50.9   51.1 51.0 ...
South
Korea

[3.0%]
GDP1 qpc     -1.3       -3.2      
Industrial production1 mpc -3.7 4.9   -6.6 -7.0 7.2   1.6 ... ...
CPI apc 1.1 1.0   0.1 -0.3 -0.0   0.3 0.7 ...

(1) Seasonally adjusted
(2) Case-Shiller Home Price Index 20 city
(3) The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
(4) Cabinet Office Japan
(5) European Commission
(6) Nationwide House Price Index
(7) Australian Bureau of Statistics
(8) Melbourne/Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index