The Long-Term Fiscal Model (LTFM) is an Excel spreadsheet-based model created by the New Zealand Treasury to produce 40-year projections.
The projections cover economic and fiscal variables, such as nominal GDP and core Crown net debt, used in the Statements on the Long-Term Fiscal Position.
The latest version of the LTFM is the model produced for:
- He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2021: The Treasury’s combined Statement on the Long-term Fiscal Position and Long-term Insights Briefing 2021
The main inputs it uses are:
- 2021 Budget Economic & Fiscal Update (BEFU) fiscal forecasts, covering the June-end years 2020/21 to 2024/25
- 2021 BEFU macroeconomic forecasts, 2020/21 to 2024/25
- 2020(base)-2073 June-end year National population projections from Stats NZ
- 2020(base)-2073 June-end year National labour force projections from Stats NZ
The modelling approach and assumptions used in He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2021 will be available in this background paper: Demographic, economic, and fiscal assumptions and logic in the 2021 Long-term Fiscal Model being published soon.
The published model produces the historical trends scenario of He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2021.
The way to model different scenarios is by changing the assumptions for post-forecast, projected year (2025/26 and beyond) variables in the Assumptions worksheet. More information about this can be found in the Guide worksheet of the model.