He Tirohanga Mokopuna

He Tirohanga Mokopuna, combining the Treasury's latest Statement on New Zealand's Long-term Fiscal Position and first Long-term Insights Briefing, was published on 29 September 2021. 

Read the media statement by Secretary to the Treasury Dr Caralee McLiesh: 

• Current debt levels prudent but tough choices ahead (29 September 2021).

The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic cast a shadow over the fiscal position of the Government and will do so for years to come. While New Zealand’s health and economic responses to COVID-19 have supported living standards to date, the economy has still faced a significant shock, uncertainty remains, and some groups have been more negatively affected than others.

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the importance of a strong and sustainable fiscal position. However, other economic and societal matters, such as climate change and population ageing, must also be factored into the long-term fiscal position of New Zealand.

Climate change will have significant economic and fiscal impacts, both now and into the future. The scale of these impacts remains uncertain, partly because many policy decisions are still to be taken. New Zealanders are, on average, living longer and healthier lives. This is a good thing, but combined with ongoing increases in health spending it is likely to put pressure on public finances over the long term.

In this report we look at some of the economic, demographic and environmental factors most likely to affect New Zealand now and into the future. We then look at our current economic situation, analyse the possible future impacts of current trends and one-off shocks like earthquakes and recessions. We also explore the impact of different tax rates, the sensitivity of key assumptions on the long-term fiscal projections, and discuss some policy options for moderating these impacts.

The Public Finance Act (1989) requires the Treasury to produce a Statement on the Crown's Long-term Fiscal Position at least every four years. For more information on how these Statements are prepared, visit this web page: Long-term fiscal position. 

The Public Service Act (2020) has introduced the requirement to produce a Long-term Insights Briefing (LTIB) at least every three years. The Treasury has chosen to incorporate its first LTIB into its latest Statement on New Zealand's Long-term Fiscal Position. For more information on these briefings, visit this web page: Long-term insights briefings.

Background papers

• How fiscal strategy affects living standards
• Golden Years – Understanding the New Zealand Superannuation Fund
• Shocks and scenarios analysis using a stochastic neoclassical growth model
• Labour productivity growth in the Treasury's fiscal projections
• The Economic Impacts of an Ageing Population in New Zealand
• Long-term projections of the New Zealand Government’s interest rate
• Demographic, Economic and Fiscal Assumptions and Logic in the 2021 Long-term Fiscal Model
• A conversation about the future with Damon Salesa
• A conversation about the future with Professor Tahu Kukutai
• A conversation about the future with Penehuro Lefale
• A conversation about the future with Rangimarie Hunia
• A conversation about the future with Dr Shaun Awatere