10 blog posts found
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FEU Special Topic: The current economic slowdown
Posted: 14 Jul 2022Topic: Economic growthFEU Special Topic: The current economic slowdown Summary Economic activity in New Zealand and a number of other countries is slowing with weaker growth expected to persist. The Treasury is not... -
MEI Special Topic: Treasury forecast accuracy
Posted: 25 Jan 2019Topic: Economic conditions, Economic forecasting, Economic growth, Economic indicators, Fiscal policy, Inflation, Public financeThe Treasury regularly carries out an assessment of the accuracy of our biannual forecasts: the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) and the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU). These... -
The measurement of New Zealand's productivity and capital
Posted: 14 Aug 2018Topic: Capital, Economic growth, Households, Human capital, International investment, Living standards framework, Natural capital, Performance measurement, Physical/financial capital, Productivity, Social capital, Standard of living, Statistics, Technological changeAuthor:"The magic bus meets the little yellow digger" – reflections on the measurement of New Zealand's productivity and capital Back in 1996 I wrote an internal paper on New Zealand's productivity... -
MEI Special Topic: Recent Trends in Tax Revenue
Posted: 7 Mar 2017Topic: Economic growth, Economic indicators, Housing, Income, National accounts, Public finance, Service industries, Superannuation, TaxationCore Crown tax revenue is currently around $70 billion a year and is forecast to increase to $90 billion by 2020/21. Tax revenue is by far the largest share of core Crown revenue ($76 ... -
MEI Special Topic: CPI Inflation
Posted: 8 Feb 2017Topic: Economic growth, Economic indicators, Employment, Housing, Inflation, Macroeconomics, Petrol, PricesAnnual Consumers Price Index (CPI) inflation rose from 0.4% to 1.3% in December 2016. This brings inflation back within the RBNZ's target band (of 1-3%) for the first time since 2014. The sudden rise... -
MEI Special Topic: Key Judgements for the Economic Outlook
Posted: 1 Nov 2016Topic: Budget, Construction, Consumption, Economic forecasting, Economic growth, Economic indicators, Employment, Exports, Foreign exchange, Inflation, Interest rates, Migration, Monetary policy, National accounts, Productivity, Statistics, Tourism, TradeOver the first half of 2016 the economy grew at a faster pace than was expected in the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (the Budget Update), as did tax revenue. Forward indicators suggest this... -
How to get an export take-off?
Posted: 21 Sep 2016Topic: Capital, Consumption, Economic conditions, Economic growth, Economic integration, Exports, Fiscal policy, Foreign exchange, International investment, Macroeconomics, Monetary policy, Productivity, Savings, Technological change, TradeAuthor:The New Zealand Government is targeting an increase in the ratio of real exports to GDP to 40 percent by 2025. To shed some light on what drives these transitions we looked at episodes to... -
Economic impacts of foreign direct investment
Posted: 16 Aug 2016Topic: Capital, Capital movements, Economic growth, Income, Innovation, International finance, International investment, Investment, National accounts, Productivity, Risk management, Savings, Skilled workersAuthor:In October 2015 the Government published a report, International Investment for Growth, which sets out the benefits of foreign investment for New Zealand. The analysis in this article informed... -
MEI Special Topic: Implications of Brexit for the New Zealand economy
Posted: 5 Jul 2016Topic: Banks, Central banks, Economic forecasting, Economic growth, Economic impact, Exports, Financial markets, Foreign exchange, Globalisation, Government securities, International agreements, Migration, Monetary policy, Monetary unions, Primary industry, Protectionism, Service industries, Tourism, TradeOn 23 June, the UK voted 52% to 48% in a referendum to leave the EU ("Brexit"). Although the referendum was regarded as binding, it will require parliamentary approval to activate Article 50 of the... -
Outlook for the Dairy Sector
Posted: 7 Jun 2016Topic: Agriculture, Budget, Business cycles, Consumption, Economic forecasting, Economic growth, Exports, Investment, Prices, Primary industry, Productivity, Protectionism, Taxation, TradeThis Staff Insight article outlines the Treasury's current understanding of global dairy supply and demand and their implications for the outlook for dairy prices. The article also presents some...