Back to top anchor
Spreadsheet model

New Zealand Superannuation Fund Contribution Rate Model - BEFU 2021

Issue date: 
Thursday, 20 May 2021
Status: 
Current

Part of:

Corporate author: 
View point: 
Document Date: 
Thursday, 20 May 2021
Publication category: 

Formats and related files

xlsx
31.39 KB

Provides tracks of the capital contributions and the size of the NZSF, for both the central forecast/projection and a scenario where the contributions determined by the legislated formula are applied, over a 40-year horizon.

pdf
192.73 KB

Explains the line-by-line modelling used, and some of the mathematics behind the calculations in the model. There is also information on where other, related material on the NZSF can be sourced from the Treasury website.

This is the Treasury’s model that is used to calculate the government's capital contribution to the New Zealand Superannuation Fund (NZSF).

This model, which is in MS Excel workbook format, calculates the contribution rate for pre-funding New Zealand Superannuation (NZS). The model was updated at the time of the release of the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2021 (BEFU 2021).

Since the last release with the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2020 (HYEFU 2020) the model’s data inputs have been updated. Specifically, the model uses the latest five-year forecasts of the NZSF’s earnings and tax payments and longer-term projections of nominal GDP and aggregate net (after-tax) NZS expenditure.

Tables in the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update show the Government’s planned capital contributions, alongside what the capital contributions would have been if they had resumed in 2021/22 under the legislated formula in Section 43 of the New Zealand Superannuation and Retirement Income Act 2001.

The two sets of numbers are not strictly comparable over the forecast period as the capital contributions required in any year under the legislated formula depend, in part, on the contributions in previous years. Reduced capital contributions in earlier years will increase the contributions required under the legislated formula in later years.

In the tables in the BEFU document, planned contributions for 2020/21 and 2021/22 have been factored into the contribution profile intended by the Government but not for 2021/22 in the contributions as prescribed by the legislated formula (as 2020/21 is nearly complete, the planned contribution for this year is used in both profiles).

Between 2019/20 and 2022/23, small percentages of the capital contributions are transferred to a new fund, the Elevate NZ Venture Fund, administered by the Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation, which will invest in New Zealand’s early stage capital markets via NZ Growth Capital Partners. While the legislated formula is used to calculate the capital contribution in 2022/23, this amount is reduced by $40 million that will be redirected to investment in early stage capital markets.

From 2023/24 onwards, annual capital contributions (and withdrawals in later years) are equal to those prescribed by the legislated formula.

For information purposes, the model contains two additional worksheets:

  • NZS data - This gives historical data, and the latest forecasts and projections, for aggregate NZS expenditure, both inclusive (gross) and exclusive (net) of tax, and average NZS recipient numbers over fiscal years. Expenditure data is given in nominal dollar terms and as a percentage of nominal GDP.

  • NZSF history - This gives historical data on the NZSF since its inception in 2001/02 up to and including the latest historical fiscal year (year ended 30 June).

The projected gross NZS tracks in the NZS data worksheet display a potential path, beyond the latest forecast horizon, of the aggregate NZS expenditure numbers. These are in gross of tax terms, which is how all expenses in the Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand are recorded.

The MS Excel workbook New Zealand Superannuation Fund (NZSF) Contribution Rate Model is a special purpose document and cannot be supplied in HTML format.

Last updated: 
Thursday, 20 May 2021