Spreadsheet model

New Zealand Superannuation Fund Contribution Rate Model - BEFU 2019

Formats and related files

This is the Treasury’s model that is used to calculate the government's capital contribution to the New Zealand Superannuation (NZS) Fund.

This model, which is in MS Excel workbook format, calculates the contribution rate for pre-funding New Zealand Superannuation (NZS). The model was updated at the time of the release of the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2019 (BEFU 2019).

Since the last release with the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2018 (HYEFU) the model’s data inputs have been updated. Specifically, the model uses the latest five-year forecasts of the NZS Fund’s earnings and tax payments and longer-term projections of nominal GDP, the nominal Government 10-year bond rate and total net (after-tax) NZS expenditure.

Tables in the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update publication and the Wellbeing Budget document show the Government’s planned capital contributions, alongside what the capital contributions would have been if they had resumed in 2018/19 under the legislated formula in Section 43 of the New Zealand Superannuation and Retirement Income Act 2001.

The two sets of numbers are not strictly comparable over the forecast period as the capital contributions required in any year under the legislated formula depend, in part, on the contributions in previous years. Reduced capital contributions in earlier years will increase the contributions required under the legislated formula in later years.

In the tables in the Budget documents, reduced contributions from 2018/19 to 2021/22 have been factored into the contribution profile intended by the Government but not the contributions as prescribed by the legislated formula. This is why the planned contribution in 2022/23 appears to be higher than is required under the legislated formula for that year.

Between 2019/20 and 2022/23, small percentages of the capital contributions are transferred to a new fund, administered by the Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation, which will invest in New Zealand’s early stage capital markets via New Zealand Venture Investment Fund Limited. While the legislated formula is used to calculate the capital contribution in 2022/23, this amount is reduced by $40 million that will be redirected to investment in early stage capital markets.

From 2023/24 onwards, annual capital contributions (and withdrawals in later years) are equal to those prescribed by the legislated formula.

For information purposes, the model contains two additional worksheets:

  • NZS Expense – History & Future This gives historical data, and the latest forecasts and projections, for aggregate NZS expenditure, both inclusive (gross) and exclusive (net) of tax, and average NZS recipient numbers over fiscal years. Expenditure data is given in nominal dollar terms and as a percentage of nominal GDP.   
  • History of NZS Fund  This gives historical data on the NZS Fund since its inception in 2001/02 up to and including the latest historical fiscal year (year ended 30 June).

The projected gross NZS tracks in the NZS Expense – History & Future worksheet display a potential path, beyond the latest forecast horizon, of the aggregate NZS expenditure numbers. These are in gross of tax terms, which is how all expenses in the Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand are recorded.

The MS Excel workbook New Zealand Superannuation Fund Contribution Rate Model is a special purpose document and cannot be supplied in HTML format.