At least every four years the Treasury produces a statement on the long-term fiscal position of the government, looking at least 40 years into the future. We do this to inform commentary and discussion on significant long-term fiscal challenges, and to help decision makers assess the long-term impacts of policy options that might be considered in these areas.
The 2020 Statement on the Long-term Fiscal Position (the 2020 Statement) was originally planned for publication in March this year. However, the rapid emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in mid-March and the high likelihood that it would have a very large economic and fiscal impact meant that we had to substantially revise our analysis, including projections and scenarios, for the 2020 Statement.
The timeframe for this work has been extended to allow for a better understanding of the likely impacts of COVID-19 and subsequent response and recovery measures on the New Zealand economy and fiscal position. The Treasury now intends to publish the 2020 Statement before the end of September 2021. This is consistent with legislative changes announced in August by Public Service Minister Hon. Chris Hipkins, under the COVID-19 Response (Further Management Measures) Legislation Bill (No 2), which included extending the deadline for the 2020 Statement to be prepared and presented to the House.
Prior to the publication of the 2020 Statement itself, the Treasury will progressively publish a series of background papers and interviews conducted as part of the development of the 2020 Statement. These present valuable insights on long-term economic, fiscal and social issues from the perspective of a range of independent researchers and experts, as well as in-depth Treasury analysis. The background papers and interviews supplement the 2020 Statement and likewise support public discussion and understanding of the long-term fiscal challenges posed by our changing population and climate.
More about Statements on the Long-term Fiscal Position
- Statements on the Long-term Fiscal Position describe trends and pressures on spending, revenue, the fiscal operating balance and public debt, based on current policy settings, recent history and likely long-term developments in key factors such as demographics and social and environmental conditions.
- The Statements are part of a suite of reporting documents required by the Public Finance Act.
- The Treasury's most recent Statement was published on 22 November 2016: He Tirohanga Mokopuna: 2016 Statement on the Long-Term Fiscal Position