The interim Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the ten months ended 30 April 2023 were released by the Treasury today.
The April results are reported against forecasts based on the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2023 (BEFU 2023), published on 18 May 2023 and the results for the same period for the previous year.
| Year to date | Full Year | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 2023 Actual1 $m |
April 2023 BEFU 2023 Forecast1 $m |
Variance2 BEFU 2023 $m |
Variance BEFU 2023 % |
June 2023 BEFU 2023 Forecast3 $m |
|
| Core Crown tax revenue | 92,274 | 93,626 | (1,352) | (1.4) | 115,349 |
| Core Crown revenue | 101,375 | 102,838 | (1,463) | (1.4) | 126,677 |
| Core Crown expenses | 103,537 | 103,867 | 330 | 0.3 | 128,195 |
| Core Crown residual cash | (27,736) | (26,526) | (1,210) | (4.6) | (22,426) |
| Net debt4 | 76,438 | 76,121 | (317) | (0.4) | 70,957 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 20.1% | 20.0% | 18.0% | ||
| Gross debt | 137,102 | 131,553 | (5,549) | (4.2) | 134,950 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 36.0% | 34.6% | 34.3% | ||
| Operating balance before gains and losses | (7,018) | (5,749) | (1,269) | (22.1) | (6,959) |
| Operating balance (excluding minority interests) | 481 | 4,209 | (3,728) | (88.6) | 4,219 |
| Net worth attributable to the Crown | 168,251 | 171,811 | (3,560) | (2.1) | 171,048 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 44.2% | 45.2% | 43.4% | ||
- Using the most recently published GDP (for the year ended 31 December 2022) of $380,326 million (Source: Stats NZ).
- Favourable variances against forecast have a positive sign and unfavourable variances against forecast have a negative sign.
- Using BEFU 2023 forecast GDP for the year ending 30 June 2023 of $394,004 million (Source: The Treasury).
- The net debt indicator includes core Crown advances, Crown entity borrowings (excluding Kiwi Group Capital) and the financial assets and borrowings of the New Zealand Super Fund (NZS Fund).
Core Crown tax revenue at $92.3 billion, was $1.4 billion below forecast. This is due to lower corporate taxes which were lower than forecast by $1.7 billion as a result of revenue from terminal tax returns being lower than forecast. This was slightly offset by higher than forecast source deduction revenue ($0.2 billion), and other direct tax revenue ($0.1 billion).
Core Crown expenses at $103.5 billion, were close to forecast, however there were offsetting variances spread across a number of spending areas.
The operating balance before gains and losses (OBEGAL) deficit of $7.0 billion was $1.3 billion greater than the forecast deficit of $5.7 billion. This was largely because of the core Crown variances noted above.
The operating balance was $0.5 billion in surplus, $3.7 billion lower than the forecast surplus. The variance to forecast was largely driven by losses on the valuation of the Accident Compensation Corporation outstanding claim liability (that was expected to be in a gain position).
The core Crown residual cash deficit of $27.7 billion was $1.2 billion higher than forecast. The higher than forecast deficit was primarily driven by net operating cash outflows as tax receipts were lower than forecast.
Net debt at $76.4 billion (20.1% of GDP), was higher than forecast by $0.3 billion. This was driven by higher than forecast residual cash deficit, and higher than forecast Crown entity borrowings, offset by favourable movements in the fair value of financial assets and liabilities (which includes the New Zealand Superannuation Fund).
Gross debt at $137.1 billion (36.0% of GDP), was $5.5 billion higher than forecast due to the operational activities of the Reserve Bank.
Net worth attributable to the Crown was $168.3 billion which was $3.6 billion lower than forecast, largely as a result of an unfavourable movement in the operating balance.
ENDS