The interim Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the seven months ended 31 January 2023 were released by the Treasury today.
The January results are reported against forecasts based on the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2022 (HYEFU 2022), published on 14 December 2022 and the results for the same period for the previous year. The majority of the variances are timing in nature or reflect changes in market conditions.
|Year to date||Full Year|
|Core Crown tax revenue||64,674||65,108||(434)||(0.7)||118,061|
|Core Crown revenue||71,274||71,902||(628)||(0.9)||130,193|
|Core Crown expenses||71,651||71,815||164||0.2||129,331|
|Core Crown residual cash||(19,679)||(17,611)||(2,068)||(11.7)||(25,364)|
|as a percentage of GDP||18.9%||19.8%||19.9%|
|as a percentage of GDP||35.8%||35.6%||35.2%|
|Operating balance before gains and losses||(2,363)||(2,283)||(80)||(3.5)||(3,631)|
|Operating balance (excluding minority interests)||2,959||(1,571)||4,530||288.4||(725)|
|Net worth attributable to the Crown||171,138||165,701||5,437||3.3||166,246|
|as a percentage of GDP||45.8%||44.4%||42.1%|
- Using the most recently published GDP (for the year ended 30 September 2022) of $373,329 million (Source: Stats NZ).
- Favourable variances against forecast have a positive sign and unfavourable variances against forecast have a negative sign.
- Using HYEFU 2022 forecast GDP for the year ending 30 June 2023 of $394,778 million (Source: The Treasury).
- The net debt indicator includes core Crown advances, Crown entity borrowings (excluding Kiwi Group) and the financial assets and borrowings of the New Zealand Super Fund (NZS Fund).
Core Crown tax revenue at $64.7 billion, were $0.4 billion below forecast. This is due to lower GST revenue ($0.3 billion), other individuals’ tax ($0.2 billion) and customs and excise duties ($0.1 billion). This is offset by corporate tax and RWT revenue which were each $0.1 billion higher than forecast.
Core Crown expenses at $71.7 billion, were $0.2 billion lower than forecast. Spending in a number of areas is lower than forecast including health ($0.3 billion), core government services ($0.3 billion) and social security and welfare ($0.2 billion). This is partly offset by core Crown finance costs which are above forecast as a result of a higher than anticipated interest rates.
The operating balance before gains and losses (OBEGAL) deficit of $2.4 billion was close to the forecast deficit of $2.3 billion. The variance in the core Crown results noted above have been largely offset by a number of SOEs that had stronger than expected results.
The operating balance was $3.0 billion in surplus, $4.5 billion better than the forecasted deficit. The improvement in the operating balance was largely driven by gains on the valuation of financial and non-financial instruments.
The core Crown residual cash deficit of $19.7 billion was $2.1 billion higher than forecast, primarily driven by net operating cash outflows. This included tax receipts which were $0.9 billion lower than forecast and operating payments which were $1.3 billion higher than forecast which is partly expected to be timing in nature.
Net debt at $70.5 billion (18.9% of GDP), was lower than forecast by $3.5 billion with $4.7 billion relating to favourable valuation movements (which includes the NZS Fund) and $0.5 billion relating to lower than forecast borrowings by Crown entities. Partially offsetting this is core Crown residual cash with the deficit being $2.1 billion higher than forecast.
Gross debt at $133.8 billion (35.8% of GDP) was close to forecast, $0.9 billion higher than the forecast.
Total borrowings were $222.8 billion, lower than forecast by $3.4 billion. This reflects derivatives in loss being $7.6 billion lower than forecast, as a result of more favourable conditions in the financial markets since the forecasts were prepared and lower than forecast settlement deposits with the RBNZ. This was partially offset by higher-than-expected Government bonds as the RBNZ has repurchased less Government bonds than forecast, the issuance of euro-commercial paper and higher than forecast collateral borrowing.
Net worth attributable to the Crown was $171.1 billion which was $5.4 billion higher than forecast. $4.5 billion of this variance relates to the favourable operating balance and $1.1 billion relates to the revaluation of electricity generation assets.
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