Paul Helm, Chief Government Accountant
The Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the ten months ended 30 April 2018 were released by the Treasury today.The statements are compared against forecasts based on the 2018 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU 18) published on 17 May 2018.
Core Crown tax revenue was $65.3 billion for the ten months to 30 April 2018, close to forecast. Source deductions were $0.2 billion above forecast due to higher than expected seasonal upswing in April. Corporate tax was below forecast by $0.1 billion mainly owing to lower than expected provisional tax assessment filings in April. Both of these fluctuations are expected to reverse in May. Other tax types were broadly in line with forecast. It is expected that year end results will continue to be close to budget.
Core Crown expenses at $66.1 billion were $0.3 billion lower than forecast with variances from forecast spread across a number of departments.
The operating balance before gains and losses (OBEGAL) was a surplus of $3.4 billion. This was higher than forecast by $0.2 billion, with more favourable core Crown results being offset by higher than expected insurance claim costs.
When gains and losses are added to the OBEGAL result, the operating balance was a $6.5 billion surplus, in line with forecast. This result flows directly into net worth attributable to the Crown which was close to forecast at $117.2 billion.
Core Crown residual cash at a deficit of $3.7 billion, was close to forecast. Core Crown tax receipts were broadly in line with forecast with no significant variance between tax types.
Core Crown net debt was $62.5 billion as at 30 April 2018 and close to forecast. Gross debt at $87.5 billion was also close to forecast.
| $ million | Year to date | Full Year | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 2018 Actual1 |
April 2018 BEFU 18 Forecast1 |
Variance2 to BEFU 18 $m |
Variance to BEFU 18 % |
June 2018 BEFU 18 Forecast3 |
|
| Core Crown | |||||
| Core Crown tax revenue | 65,303 | 65,293 | 10 | - | 79,537 |
| Core Crown revenue | 70,770 | 70,632 | 138 | 0.2 | 85,959 |
| Core Crown expenses | 66,116 | 66,375 | 259 | 0.4 | 81,720 |
| Core Crown residual cash | (3,737) | (3,747) | 10 | 0.3 | (1,255) |
| Gross debt4 | 87,475 | 87,649 | 174 | 0.2 | 87,467 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 30.9% | 30.9% | 30.1% | ||
| Net debt5 | 62,508 | 62,737 | 229 | 0.4 | 60,409 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 22.1% | 22.1% | 20.8% | ||
| Total Crown | |||||
| Operating balance before gains and losses | 3,406 | 3,247 | 159 | 4.9 | 3,141 |
| Operating balance | 6,542 | 6,538 | 4 | 0.1 | 6,997 |
| Net worth attributable to the Crown | 117,174 | 117,127 | 47 | - | 117,649 |
- Using the most recently published GDP (for the year ended 31 December 2017) of $283,465 million (Source: Statistics New Zealand).
- Favourable variances against forecast have a positive sign and unfavourable variances against forcase have a negative sign.
- Using BEFU 18 forecast GDP for the year ending 30 June 2018 of $291,020 million (Source: the Treasury).
- Gross sovereign-issued debt excluding settlement cash and Reserve Bank bills.
- Net core Crown debt excluding student loans and other advances. Net debt may fluctuate during the year largely reflecting the timing of tax receipts.
ENDS
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