Colin Lynch
Deputy Secretary to the Treasury
The Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the five months ended 30 November 2009 were released by the Treasury today.
The monthly financial statements were based on the 2009 Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update published on 15 December 2009.
Results for the five months ended 30 November 2009#
- Core Crown tax revenue was $0.3 billion (1.4%) higher than forecast as:
- GST revenue was $0.3 billion (7.4%) higher than forecast. The timing of the GST due date at the end of November meant an extra day was available to process and attribute GST to November that was not forecast. We expect the variance to largely reverse in coming months and this view is supported by GST receipts which were broadly in line with forecast.
- Corporate tax revenue was $0.1 billion (7.0%) higher than forecast mainly due to provisional tax assessments that were filed earlier than expected from taxpayers utilising tax pools.
- Source deductions tax revenue was $0.2 billion (2.3%) lower than forecast. This variance may relate to labour market outcomes or unexpected payday timing effects. The underlying reason for the variance will be clearer when labour market data becomes available in February.
- The operating balance before gains and losses deficit was $0.7 billion lower than forecast mainly due to the favourable variances in core Crown tax revenue ($0.3 billion) described above and Core Crown expenses ($0.3 billion lower than forecast) due to a number of individually small variances, all less than $30 million.
- Bringing in the impact of gains and losses, the operating balance deficit was $1.1 billion lower than forecast. Net gains were $0.4 billion higher than forecast mainly due to gains on the Crown’s investment portfolios ($0.7 billion). The favourable operating balance variance flowed through to net worth, which was $0.9 billion higher than forecast.
- Gross debt was $2.6 billion lower than forecast with Treasury bills being $1.6 billion lower than expected because market conditions meant maintaining Treasury Bill issuance below forecast levels was cost effective. In addition, RBNZ’s unsettled trade liabilities and NZDMO’s third party collateral deposits were lower than forecast ($0.6 billion and $0.5 billion respectively).
- In contrast, net debt was close to forecast at $22.7 billion (12.3% of GDP) as the factors driving the gross debt variance had a neutral impact on the net debt position.
| Year to date | Full Year | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $ million | November 2009 Actual[1] |
November 2009 HYEFU Forecast[1] |
Variance to HYEFU $m |
Variance to HYEFU % |
June 2010 HYEFU Forecast[2] |
| Core Crown | |||||
| Core Crown revenue | 22,014 | 21,828 | 186 | 0.9 | 56,751 |
| Core Crown expenses | 26,002 | 26,307 | 305 | 1.2 | 65,520 |
| Core Crown residual cash | (5,275) | (5,121) | (154) | (3.0) | (10,091) |
| Gross debt[3] | 48,076 | 50,667 | 2,591 | 5.1 | 53,651 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 26.0% | 27.4% | 29.1% | ||
| Net debt[4] | 22,732 | 22,416 | (316) | (1.4) | 27,371 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 12.3% | 12.1% | 14.8% | ||
| Total Crown | |||||
| Operating balance before gains and (losses) | (3,706) | (4,382) | 676 | 15.4 | (7,465) |
| Operating balance | (1,405) | (2,488) | 1,083 | 43.5 | (4,794) |
| Net Worth | 97,844 | 96,928 | 916 | 0.9 | 94,809 |
- Using GDP for the year ended 30 September 2009 of $184,917 million (Source: Statistics New Zealand).
- Using forecast GDP for the year ended 30 June 2010 of $184,466 million (Source: Treasury).
- Gross sovereign-issued debt excluding settlement cash and Reserve Bank bills.
- Net core Crown debt excluding student loans and other advances.
ENDS
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