Paul Helm, Chief Government Accountant
The Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the five months ended 30 November 2018 were released by the Treasury today. The statements are compared against forecasts based on the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2018 (HYEFU 2018) published on 13 December 2018.
The operating balance before gains and losses (OBEGAL) was a $0.3 billion surplus, $0.4 billion higher than the forecast deficit and primarily due to the core Crown tax and core Crown expenses being favourable to forecast.
Core Crown tax revenue at $32.9 billion was ahead of forecast by $0.1 billion (0.4%), primarily due to higher than expected source deduction and GST, partially offset by corporate tax results.
Core Crown expenses of $35.5 billion were $0.4 billion (1.1%) below budget. $0.3 billion of this underspend relates to Social Housing and KiwiBuild and is likely to be timing in nature, while the remainder was spread over a number of entities.
Core Crown residual cash was a deficit of $4.6 billion, $0.5 billion more than the forecast deficit. This was mainly due to core Crown tax receipts being $0.2 billion lower than forecast and core Crown capital payments being $0.2 billion higher than forecast.
Net core Crown debt was $62.0 billion (21.3% of GDP) at the end of November 2018, $0.4 billion (0.7%) higher than forecast largely as a result of the residual cash variance discussed above.
When the core Crown results discussed above are combined with total gains and losses along with SOE and CE results, the operating balance was a $2.7 billion deficit, $2.0 billion less than forecast. This variance was mostly due to total gains and losses ($2.3 billion) that were driven primarily by changes in foreign exchange rates and discount rates.
Net worth attributable to the Crown (NWAC) was $127.5 billion, $2.1 billion less than forecast at HYEFU 2018. The majority of this variance relates to the current operating balance deficit.
Key indicators for the five months ended 30 November 2018 compared to HYEFU 2018
|$ million||Year to date||Full Year|
|Core Crown tax revenue||32,895||32,754||141||0.4||84,325|
|Core Crown revenue||35,884||35,823||61||0.2||91,323|
|Core Crown expenses||35,520||35,929||409||1.1||88,669|
|Core Crown residual cash||(4,632)||(4,142)||(490)||(11.8)||(4,993)|
|as a percentage of GDP||30.3%||30.5%||27.6%|
|as a percentage of GDP||21.3%||21.2%||20.9%|
|Operating balance before gains and losses||261||(88)||349||396.6||1,724|
|Operating balance (excluding minority interests)||(2,657)||(656)||(2,001)||(305.0)||3,112|
|Net worth attributable to the Crown||127,475||129,575||(2,100)||(1.6)||133,480|
- Using the most recently published GDP (for the year ended 30 September 2018) of $290,902 million (Source: Statistics New Zealand).
- Favourable variances against forecast have a positive sign and unfavourable variances against forecast have a negative sign.
- Using HYEFU 2018 forecast GDP for the year ending 30 June 2019 of $300,168 million (Source: The Treasury).
- Gross sovereign-issued debt excluding settlement cash and Reserve Bank bills.
- Net core Crown debt excluding student loans and other advances. Net debt may fluctuate during the year largely reflecting the timing of tax receipts.
EnquiriesJayne Winfield | Office of the Government Accountant
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