In mid-2020 the Treasury commissioned two reports to:
- model the dynamic economic impacts of varying the timing of the border re-opening and of further COVID-19 resurgences, using Sense Partners Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, and
- forecast regional and sectoral impacts of the current economic outlook using modelling by Infometrics.
These reports were finalised in October and use the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update as a baseline. We are publishing these reports to add to the stock of publicly available information about the economic impacts of COVID-19.
These reports were commissioned by the Treasury to provide insights into a range of possible economic outcomes from the COVID-19 shock. They were intended to inform our understanding of the possible impacts at the economy wide, industry, and regional level to complement the broader macroeconomic story. They can be used to give general ‘orders of magnitude’ of the effects of shocks. They do not reflect any Treasury policy positions, nor do they make policy recommendations.