The Treasury's forecasts for Government finances and the economy are published in Budget documents titled Economic and Fiscal Updates (EFUs).
The Economic and Fiscal Updates provide a detailed statement of the Government's financial position including updated economic and fiscal forecasts, analysis of the fiscal position and a summary of specific fiscal risks.
These forecasts are usually published twice each year: the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) is published with other Budget documents in May of each year, and the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) is usually produced in December. A Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) is required to be published prior to a general election.
The most recent published forecast is the:
- Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2020 published on 16 December 2020.
The most recent version of the Fiscal Strategy Model can be found at Fiscal Strategy Model - BPS 2021.
The next forecast will be the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2021 (BEFU) to be released on Budget day, Thursday, 20 May 2021.
The Treasury has published a number of research and policy publications on forecasting issues - some of which are below.