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Background paper

Background Paper for the 2021 Statement on the Long-term Fiscal Position: Shocks and Scenarios Analysis Using a Stochastic Neoclassical Growth Model

Issue date: 
Wednesday, 29 September 2021
Corporate author: 
Document Date: 
Wednesday, 29 Sep 2021
Publication category: 
JEL classification: 
E13 - General Aggregative Models: Neoclassical
E17 - General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E62 - Fiscal Policy
H51 - National Government Expenditures and Health
H55 - Social Security and Public Pensions
H63 - National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt


I thank Jean-Pierre Andre, Matthew Appleby, Matthew Bell, Steve Cantwell, Karsten Chipeniuk, Shane Domican, Craig Fookes, Margaret Galt, Peter Gardiner, John Janssen, Anita King, Sam King, Natalie Labuschagne, Udayan Mukherjee, Murat Özbilgin, Oscar Parkyn, Hemant Passi, Bettina Schaer, Nathan Spence and Niven Winchester for their help and their useful comments. All mistakes and errors are my own.

Last updated: 
Wednesday, 29 September 2021