The Treasury will report later this year on its view of the country’s long-term fiscal position. The second phase of consultation on this report is now open. Submissions close on 30 July 2021.
COVID-19 has had an unprecedented impact on the economy, and there is still considerable uncertainty about its future effects. But the Treasury is also focused on the potential effects on our economy of long-term macroeconomic trends like population and climate change.
At least every four years the Treasury produces a Statement on the Long-term Fiscal Position of the government, looking at least 40 years into the future. We do this to inform commentary and discussion on New Zealand’s significant long-term fiscal challenges, and to help decision makers assess the long-term impacts of policy options that might be considered in these areas.
Statements on the Long-term Fiscal Position describe trends and pressures on spending, revenue, the fiscal operating balance and public debt. These descriptions are based on current policy settings, recent history and likely long-term developments in key factors such as demographic, social and environmental conditions. Since 2004 the Treasury has produced four such Statements - you can find these on our website here: Long-term fiscal position
This year, the report will also incorporate our first Long-term Insights Briefing to the Minister of Finance, as required by the Public Service Act 2020, looking at the medium to long-term trends, risks and opportunities to New Zealand through the Treasury’s core fiscal stewardship lens.
Draft of the Statement
The second phase of consultation is now open, inviting public feedback on a draft of the Statement which can be found here: Draft Statement for Consultation: He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2021
We are particularly interested in:
- Your reflections on the analysis of New Zealand’s long-run fiscal position included in the Statement (section 1)
- Your views on the options included in the Statement for responding to long-term fiscal trends (section 2)
This draft includes discussion on how we have incorporated the public feedback received during the first phase of consultation.
You can send your written submission on the draft content of the Statement by email to [email protected]
Alternatively, you can send your submission to the address below:
PO Box 3724
Submissions close on 30 July 2021.
What information will be made available?
In line with the requirements of the Public Service Act 2020, and our commitment to openness and transparency, the Treasury intends to proactively release a summary of the feedback received through stakeholder submissions on the scope of the Statement.
You can request that your submission be anonymised, or that all or part of your submission be withheld from publication. The Treasury will consider all requests to withhold information but reserves the right to release any information in compliance with the requirements of the Official Information Act 1982.
In addition, the following background papers, charts and data are being published to support discussion on the 2021 Statement:
|A conversation about the future with Damon Salesa||1 April|
|A conversation about the future with Professor Tahu Kukutai||1 April|
|How fiscal strategy affects living standards||17 June|
|Golden Years – Understanding the New Zealand Superannuation Fund||22 June|
|A conversation about the future with Penehuro Lefale||1 July|
|A conversation about the future with Dr Shaun Awatere||1 July|
|Data and Charts - Long Term Fiscal Statement 2021||6 July|
|The economic impacts of an ageing population in New Zealand||September|
|Shocks and scenarios analysis using a stochastic neoclassical growth model||September|
|Long-term projections of the New Zealand Government’s interest rate||September|
|Demographic, economic, and fiscal assumptions and logic in the 2020 Long-term Fiscal Model||September|
You’ll find links to other related information at the bottom of this page.
Scope of the Statement
The first phase of consultation on the Treasury’s 2021 Statement on the Long-term Fiscal Position focused on the proposed scope of the Statement.
This consultation took place in over March and April 2021. We provided a consultation document that outlined the proposed subject matter for the 2021 Statement:
Submissions on this document were invited over a four-week period, closing 26 March 2021. We received five written submissions and held interviews with eight subject matter experts in fields such as retirement, productivity, economic forecasting, and business.
We received a range of feedback on both the proposed topics of the Statement, as well as on possible policy directions government could take. A summary of the public feedback received on the proposed topics for the Statement can be found here:
Enquiries? Get in touch
For general enquiries about the Statement of long-term fiscal position, please email [email protected]