Back to top anchor
Guest lecture

Tobacco tax modelling and other cost - effectiveness studies for NZ: Latest BODE3 Results

Event series: 


This seminar will overview recent outputs from the HRC-Funded Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme (BODE3;, the University of Otago, Wellington. We will focus mainly on the impact of tobacco tax through to prevalence, QALY gains, mortality and net health system costs. We will then conclude with brief summaries of other recent BODE3 outputs, such as HPV vaccination, cancer care coordination and costing studies.

Tobacco Endgame - Game On!

Will the country achieve the smokefree nation goal of less than 5% smoking prevalence by 2025 under business-as-usual? What additional impact would a 10% per annum tax have? We will walk through three research projects that address these questions.

  1. Forecasting future tobacco smoking prevalence under business as usual (BAU) using Census and Mortality data, combined through a Markov model, to calculate past initiation and cessation rates for smoking. 
  2. Adding a 10% per annum tax out to 2025, resulting in a reduced prevalence.
  3. Disease and economic decision modelling (multistate lifetable methodology) to estimate the quality-adjusted life-years that a 10% annual tax would gain, and the health system cost savings.

About Tony Blakely and Nick Wilson

Tony Blakely and Nick Wilson are Director and co-Director of BODE3. They are both epidemiologists and public health medicine specialists with extensive research portfolios - often on research specifically designed to inform policy. Their research interests include tobacco, healthy eating, cancer control, climate change co-benefits, cardiovascular disease, cost-effectiveness, and public health generally.

They also co-edit the Public Health Expert blog ( that provides policy-relevant summaries of recent research and current public health issues.

Note: Papers, presentation slides and any other material provided by the Guest Lecturer will be made available some time after the lecture at Publications > Media & Speeches > Guest Lectures by Visiting Academics.

Venue map

Last updated: 
Tuesday, 19 August 2014