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2015

Economic Outcomes of Youth not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) (WP 15/01)
Authors: Anton Samoilenko and Kristie Carter. The paper examines the outcomes of youth not in education, employment or training (NEET) up to four years after the initial long-term spell of NEET. The paper covers outcomes of NEETs in relation to benefit receipt, education, employment and future inactivity.
Taxation and the User Cost of Capital: An Introduction (WP 15/02)
Author: John Creedy and Norman Gemmell. The aim of this paper is to provide an introduction to the concept of user cost and its determinants.
Towards Putting a Price on the Risk of Bank Failure (WP 15/03)
Author: Daniel Snethlage. This paper develops a new approach for conceptualizing and measuring the risk associated with bank failure.
The Impact of Sentencing on Offenders' Future Labour Market Outcomes and Re-offending - Community Work Versus Fines (WP 15/04)
Authors: Michele Morris and Charles Sullivan. This study provides evidence to help inform sentencing policy by assessing the differential impact of two types of sentences (community work and fines) on adult offenders' subsequent employment, benefit receipt and re-offending.
The Impact of Tax Changes on the Short-run Investment Behaviour of New Zealand Firms (WP 15/05)
Authors: Richard Fabling, Richard Kneller and Lynda Sanderson. This paper examines firm-level investment responses to exogenous changes in the forward-looking user cost of capital associated with reforms to the corporate and personal tax system over the last decade.
Inequality in New Zealand 1983/84 to 2013/14 (WP 15/06)
Authors: Christopher Ball and John Creedy. This paper provides an empirical analysis of annual income and expenditure inequality in New Zealand over a thirty-year period from the early 1980s.
The Impact of Tertiary Study on the Labour Market Outcomes of Low-qualified School Leavers (WP 15/07)
Authors: Sarah Tumen, Sarah Crichton and Sylvia Dixon. This study examines the impacts of post-school education on the labour market outcomes of young people who leave school with few qualifications. Specifically, it estimates the effects of tertiary study on the employment rates, benefit receipt rates and earnings of young people who left school without completing NCEA level 2, who enrolled at a tertiary institution while they were aged 16–19.
Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Margins of Exports (WP 15/08)
Authors: Richard Fabling and Lynda Sanderson. This paper examines the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and New Zealand export performance.
Estimating the Cyclically- and Absorption-adjusted Fiscal Balance for New Zealand (WP 15/09)
Author: Miles Workman. This paper documents the nature of the absorption cycle in New Zealand and then quantifies its effect on fiscal revenues by estimating a new structural fiscal balance indicator - the cyclically- and absorption-adjusted balance (CAAB) - over the period 1997-2019.
Long-run Fiscal Projections under Uncertainty: The Case of New Zealand (WP 15/10)
Authors: Christopher Ball, John Creedy and Grant Scobie. This paper introduces uncertainty into a fiscal projection model which incorporates population ageing along with a number of feedback effects. When fiscal policy responds in order to achieve a target debt ratio, feedback effects modify the intended outcomes.
Debt Projections and Fiscal Sustainability with Feedback Effects (WP 15/11)
Author: John Creedy and Grant Scobie. This paper analyses long-term fiscal sustainability with a model which incorporates a number of feedback effects. When fiscal policy responds to ensure long-term sustainability, these feedback effects can potentially modify the intended outcomes by either enhancing or dampening the results of the policy interventions.
The New Zealand Treasury's Living Standards Framework - Exploring a Stylised Model (WP 15/12)
Author: Girol Karacaoglu. The New Zealand Treasury's Living Standards Framework (LSF) is a guide for thinking about good economic, environmental and social policy in an integrated way - policy that aims to enhance individual and communal wellbeing on a sustained basis. This paper presents an evolving stylised model (one possible model) for the LSF; it is work in progress. The model is constructed by weaving together threads from the wellbeing, sustainable development and endogenous economic growth literatures. Its primary aim is to capture all key attributes of the LSF in a unified model. In doing so, I wish to identify the domain of a public policy that aims to enhance collective intergenerational wellbeing, highlight the key complementarities and tradeoffs that we face as a society in this pursuit, and explore the policy options and levers available to the policy makers to relax these tradeoffs and exploit the complementarities to the same end.
Labour Supply in New Zealand and the 2010 Tax and Transfer Changes (WP 15/13)
Authors: John Creedy and Penny Mok. This paper examines the simulated labour supply responses to the personal tax and transfer policy changes introduced in New Zealand in 2010, and the implications for revenue and income distribution.
A Practical Approach to Well-being Based Policy Development: What Do New Zealanders Want from Their Retirement Income Policies? (WP 15/14)
Authors: Joey Au, Andrew Coleman and Trudy Sullivan. This paper investigates the practicality of using a sophisticated multi-criteria analysis technique to estimate the preferences of a representative sample of the public to inform policy advice.
The Employment and Income Effects of Eight Chronic and Acute Health Conditions (WP 15/15)
Author: Sylvia Dixon. This paper examines the impact of eight different health conditions on the employment rates and incomes of working-aged New Zealanders who develop them. The conditions studied are stroke, traumatic brain injury, coronary heart disease, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), breast cancer, melanoma, and prostate cancer.
Decomposing New Zealand's Terms of Trade (WP 15/16)
Author: Phillip Mellor. This paper adds to the understanding of how New Zealand's terms of trade have evolved since 1991. The paper develops a method to decompose the percentage change in the terms of trade into the contributions from different export and import components.