3.5 China's demand for services imports likely to grow
As China experiences rising incomes, increased urbanisation and more international integration, services imports are expected to continue to increase. The Chinese National Tourism Administration forecasts that outbound trips will grow from 65 million in 2011 to 100 million in 2015 and with spending of US$100 billion overseas.[44] The NZ Ministry of Tourism's goal is for Chinese tourists to increase spending in New Zealand from $457 million in 2011 to $579 million (27%) by 2015 (Tourism New Zealand, 2012). This is made up of total visitor nights rising as China becomes more internationally integrated, and average nightly expenditure increasing, as a result of Chinese incomes rising(Ministry of Economic Development, 2011).
Visitor arrival numbers are forecast to increase 15% in 2013 and 10% in 2014. Inbound Chinese visitor numbers will also be boosted by the introduction of new airline routes between the two countries. China Southern Airlines started a route between Guangzhou and Auckland in April 2011, expanded to a daily service in November that year. The new route is expected to boost seat numbers by 80,000 a year and bring in $175 million in tourism spending.
Rising incomes and increasing international integration should also mean more Chinese families can afford to send their children overseas for their education, including to New Zealand. This will be helped by the fact that New Zealand is a country with Approved Destination Status for individuals (along with Australia). New Zealand's services trade with China is dominated by personal and educational travel services exports and the total value of services trade with China is low relative to the value of merchandise trade,[45] indicating that there is scope for services trade with China to expand as incomes rise in China and merchandise trade increases.
Notes
- [44]http://news.travel168.net/20110401/27447.html
- [45]In the year to June 2012, bilateral services trade with China was worth NZ$1.4 billion relative to total merchandise trade of NZ$13.8 billion, compared with services trade worth NZ$9.5 billion and total merchandise trade of NZ$17.7 billion with Australia.
