2 Long term trends
2.1 Population ageing
New Zealand, in common with most industrialised countries, is expected to experience significant population ageing in the coming decades. As shown in Figure 1, from Statistics New Zealand, people aged 65 and over are projected to feature more prominently as a percentage of the working-age and indeed the total population over the next 50 years.
- Figure 1 - New Zealand Population Age Structure: 1960, 2010 and 2060
- Figure 2 - Population Share: 2006 to 2060
Figure 2 indicates that between 2010 and 2060, the percentage of people aged 65 and over is expected to increase from 13% to 26% of the total population and, more significantly for fiscal analysis, the percentage of the population aged over 80 triples. Concurrently, the proportion of people between the ages of 15 and 64 is expected to decrease and those over the age of 65 are therefore expected to represent a higher proportion of the total working-age population over time. While the baby-boomer generation reaching retirement age is expected to create a temporary bulge, the long-term ageing of New Zealand's population will be affected by declining fertility and mortality rates and characterised by an ‘ageing of the aged' whereby the proportion of people over 80 is expected to increase substantially.
