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Population Ageing and the Growth of Income and Consumption Tax Revenue

Publication Details

  • Population Ageing and the Growth of Income and Consumption Tax Revenue
  • Published: 16 Jul 2013
  • Status: Current
  • Authors: Creedy, John; Ball, Chris
  • Pages: (2),iii,27
  • ISBN: 978-0-478-40346-6 (Online)
  • Ref. No: WP 13/09
  • Pub. type: Working Papers
  • Responsible units: Tax Strategy
  • Copyright: © Crown Copyright
 

Population Ageing and the Growth of Income and Consumption Tax Revenue

Published 16 Jul 2013

Authors: Christopher Ball and John Creedy

Abstract

This paper investigates the implications of population ageing and changes in labour force participation rates for projections of revenue obtained from personal income taxation and a consumption tax (in the form of a broad-based goods and services tax). A projection model is presented, involving changing age-income profiles over time for males and females. The model is estimated and applied to New Zealand over the period 2011-2062.

This Working Paper is available in Adobe PDF and HTML. Using PDF Files

Contents

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Executive Summary

1 Introduction

2 Tax Revenue and Population Ageing

3 Cohort Income Profiles

4 Income Tax Revenue

5 Consumption Tax Revenue

6 Average Effective Tax Rates

7 Capital Income Tax Revenue

8 Conclusions

Bibliography

twp13-09.pdf (903 KB) pp. (2), i-iv, 1–27

Acknowledgements

We are grateful to Matt Benge, Iris Claus, Peter Mawson and Paul Rodway for comments on an earlier draft of this paper.

Disclaimer

The views, opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Working Paper are strictly those of the author(s). They do not necessarily reflect the views of the New Zealand Treasury or the New Zealand Government. The New Zealand Treasury and the New Zealand Government take no responsibility for any errors or omissions in, or for the correctness of, the information contained in these working papers. The paper is presented not as policy, but with a view to inform and stimulate wider debate.

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