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Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections

Publication Details

  • Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections
  • Published: 6 Mar 2013
  • Status: Current
  • Authors: Creedy, John; Makale, Kathleen
  • Pages: (2),vi,20
  • ISBN: 978-0-478-40301-5 (Online)
  • Ref. No: WP 13/06
  • Pub. type: Working Papers
  • Responsible units: Tax Strategy
  • Copyright: © Crown Copyright
  • JEL Classification: E61; H50; J11

Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections

Published 6 Mar 2013

Authors: John Creedy and Kathleen Makale


This paper presents stochastic projections for 13 categories of social spending in New Zealand over the period 2011-2061. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality disaggregated by single year of age and gender. Distributional parameters are incorporated for all of the major variables, and are used to build up probabilistic projections for social expenditure as a share of GDP using simulation methods, following Creedy and Scobie (2005). Emphasis is placed on the considerable uncertainty involved in projecting future expenditure levels.

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Executive Summary

1 Introduction

2 The projection model

3 Benchmark results

4 Sensitivity Analyses

5 Conclusions

Appendix A: The Projection Model

Appendix B: The Data


twp13-06.pdf (914 KB) pp. 1–28


We are grateful to Christopher Ball, John Bryant and Nicola Kirkup for comments on an earlier version of this paper.


The views, opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Working Paper are strictly those of the author(s). They do not necessarily reflect the views of the New Zealand Treasury or the New Zealand Government. The New Zealand Treasury and the New Zealand Government take no responsibility for any errors or omissions in, or for the correctness of, the information contained in these working papers. The paper is presented not as policy, but with a view to inform and stimulate wider debate.

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