3.3 Revisions to the household savings measure
The household saving data used in Section 3.2 was based on the latest estimates from the national accounts. The full time series is given in Column (2) of Appendix Table B.1. It is important to note that these data have been significantly revised in recent years. The importance of this arises from the fact that the policy debate for a time was dominated by concerns of extremely low rates of household saving. For example the saving rate in 2005 based on estimates at that time was -14.8%, making New Zealand an outlier in international comparisons. By 2012, the revised estimate of the 2005 rate was -6.2%.
To illustrate the significance of these revisions, Table 4 has been constructed. It shows the estimate of the saving rate initially made and compares that with the latest published estimates for 2012 (the latter having been used in this paper). Over the period 1987 to 2012 the current (2012) estimate exceeds the initial estimate on average by 2.5 percentage points of household disposable income. Over the period 2004 to 2009, the difference was on average +7.1 percentage points.
| Initial Estimate | Revised Estimate | Change1 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | Year made | % | Year made | % | |
| 1987 | 1.3% | 2004 | 2.7% | 2012 | 1.4% |
| 1988 | 4.4% | 2004 | 5.6% | 2012 | 1.2% |
| 1989 | 2.9% | 2004 | 4.0% | 2012 | 1.1% |
| 1990 | 2.2% | 2004 | 3.1% | 2012 | 0.9% |
| 1991 | 0.0% | 2004 | 1.4% | 2012 | 1.4% |
| 1992 | 2.2% | 2004 | 4.4% | 2012 | 2.1% |
| 1993 | -0.1% | 2004 | 0.9% | 2012 | 1.0% |
| 1994 | -0.9% | 2004 | 0.0% | 2012 | 0.9% |
| 1995 | -3.6% | 2004 | -2.2% | 2012 | 1.4% |
| 1996 | -3.7% | 2004 | -2.6% | 2012 | 1.1% |
| 1997 | -3.2% | 2004 | -2.6% | 2012 | 0.6% |
| 1998 | -4.1% | 2004 | -2.1% | 2012 | 2.0% |
| 1999 | -4.6% | 2004 | -3.2% | 2012 | 1.4% |
| 2000 | -1.5% | 2004 | 1.0% | 2012 | 2.5% |
| 2001 | -4.9% | 2004 | -4.7% | 2012 | 0.2% |
| 2002 | -4.9% | 2004 | -3.9% | 2012 | 1.0% |
| 2003 | -11.1% | 2004 | -9.7% | 2012 | 1.5% |
| 2004 | -12.3% | 2004 | -7.6% | 2012 | 4.6% |
| 2005 | -14.8% | 2005 | -6.2% | 2012 | 8.6% |
| 2006 | -14.0% | 2006 | -8.2% | 2012 | 5.8% |
| 2007 | -14.2% | 2007 | -7.1% | 2012 | 7.1% |
| 2008 | -10.7% | 2008 | -3.6% | 2012 | 7.1% |
| 2009 | -13.7% | 2009 | -4.1% | 2012 | 9.6% |
| 2010 | -2.2% | 2010 | -0.5% | 2012 | 1.7% |
| 2011 | 0.2% | 2011 | 0.2% | 2012 | -0.1% |
| 2012 | -0.1% | 2012 | -0.1% | 2012 | 0.0% |
| Average | -4.3% | -1.7% | 2.5% | ||
Notes:
1 Percentage point change
A complete history of the estimates of the household saving rate made each year from 1987 to 2012 is given in Appendix D, together with a synthesis of major recent revisions. A selection of these is illustrated in Figure 7. For example, in 2009, the estimate of the household saving rate for that year was -13.7%. By 2012 however, following significant revisions, the estimate for 2009 revised to -4.1%. These findings underscore the need for the policy debate to be grounded in solid evidence, and to be cognizant of any limitations of the data that underpins that evidence.
- Figure 7 - Revisions to the estimates of the household saving rate: selected years
(Household saving rate as a % of Household disposable income) 
- Adapted from Bollard and Barrow (2012) based on data supplied by Statistics New Zealand.
