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An Analysis of Benefit Flows in New Zealand Using a Social Accounting Framework WP 13/01

4 Simulations of Benefit Numbers

This section reports a range of simulations, up to November 2016, of the numbers of benefit recipients. These simulations effectively provide counterfactuals against which various policy reforms could be examined. The approach involves taking the actual stocks in each benefit category at November 2010, and then making assumptions about the quarterly entries and transitions over the subsequent quarters. These counterfactuals are described in subsection 4.1. Benefit numbers are reported in subsection 4.2. The implications for the number of beneficiaries who are also employed while in receipt of benefits are shown in Appendix D.

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