Annex 1: Changes in demographic projections
The 2006 Statement used the 2004-base-year official demographic projections for the long-term fiscal position. The 2009 Statement uses specially commissioned projections from Statistics New Zealand to bring the projection base up to 30 June 2008 and to reflect recent rises in fertility. These were delivered in March 2009.
On 27 October, two days before the publication of the 2009 Statement, Statistics New Zealand released its new population projections with the provisional population estimate as at 30 June 2009 as the base.
This annex examines how changes in these projections (the mid-range Series 5) have affected the fiscal position out to 2050, using the 2009 LTFM.
| Base year | 2010 | 2030 | 2050 | 2010 | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total fertility rate | Net migration | |||||
| 2004 | 1.94 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 |
| 2006 | 2.08 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 |
| 2008 | 2.16 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 |
| 2009 | 2.11 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 |
| Base year | 2010 | 2030 | 2050 | 2010 | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life expectancy - males | Life expectancy - females | |||||
| 2004 | 78.5 | 82.0 | 83.5 | 83.0 | 85.8 | 87.0 |
| 2006 | 78.8 | 82.4 | 84.2 | 82.7 | 86.0 | 87.7 |
| 2008 | 78.8 | 82.4 | 84.2 | 82.7 | 86.0 | 87.7 |
| 2009 | 78.8 | 82.0 | 84.4 | 82.5 | 85.2 | 87.5 |
| Base year | 2010 | 2030 | 2050 | 2010 | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total fertility rate | Net migration | |||||
| 2004 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 19.9 | 35.8 | 45.0 |
| 2006 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 19.6 | 34.6 | 41.9 |
| 2008 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 19.6 | 34.3 | 41.7 |
| 2009 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 19.5 | 33.4 | 39.1 |
Source: The Treasury
The old age dependency ratio has fallen in the 2009-base projections, implying that NZS will be a smaller share of GDP by 2050. These ratios show little change between the 2006-base projections and those based on 2008.
Flowing the 2009-base projections through the LTFM produces lower net debt, from 223% to 189% of GDP in 2050.
- Figure A1.1 - Changes in old age dependency ratio for medium projections
- Source: Statistics New Zealand
- Figure A1.2 - 2009-base year projection has lower NZS than 2008-base
- Source: The Treasury
- Figure A1.3 - 2009-base year projection has lower net debt than the 2008-base
- Source: The Treasury
