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References

ABARE Current Issues February 2001 “Trade Liberalisation in World Dairy Markets”.

Anderson, Kym and Will Martin (2005) “Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda”. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3607, May.

Andrews, Donald W.K. (1993) “Exactly Median-Unbiased Estimation of First Order Autoregressive/Unit Root Models”. Econometrica 61(1): 139-165.

Andrews, Donald W.K. and Werner Ploberger (1994) “Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter is Present Only Under the Alternative.” Econometrica 62(6): 1383-1414.

Bai, Jushan and Pierre Perron (1998) “Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes.” Econometrica 66(1): 47-78.

Barro, Robert J. and Xavier Sala-i-Martin (2004) Economic Growth (London: MIT Press)

Black, Melleny, Mark Vink and Bruce White (2003) “Aspects of the New Zealand Export Performance: An Evaluation of the Contribution of Exports to Economic Growth.” Wellington, New Zealand Treasury, Paper presented at the New Zealand Association of Economists’ Conference, Auckland, June 2003.

Blattman, Christopher, Jason Hwang, and Jeffrey G. Williamson (2003) “The Terms of Trade and Economic Growth in the Periphery 1870-1983.” NBER Working Paper No. 9940, August.

Bleaney, Michael and David Greenaway (1993) “Long-Run Trends in the Relative Price of Primary Commodities and in the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries”. Oxford Economic Papers 45(3): 349-363.

Briggs, Phil (2003) Looking at the Numbers: A View of New Zealand’s Economic History. (Wellington: New Zealand Institute of Economic Research).

Buckle, Robert A, Kunhong Kim, Heather Kirkham, Nathan McLellan and Jared Sharma (2002) “A Structural VAR Model of the New Zealand Business Cycle.” New Zealand Treasury Working Paper No. 02/26, December.

Cashin, Paul and C. John McDermott (2002) “The Long-Run Behaviour of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability.” International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 49(2): 175-199.

Cashin, Paul, C. John McDermott and Alasdair Scott (1999) “Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices”. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/8, December.

Cashin, Paul, Hong Liang and C. John McDermott (2000) “How Persistent are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?” International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 47(2): 177-217.

Dalziel, Paul and Ralph Lattimore (2004) The New Zealand Macroeconomy: Striving for Sustainable Growth with Equity. (Oxford University Press).

Easterly, William, Michael Kremer, Lant Pritchett, and Lawrence H. Summers (1993) “Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks.” NBER Working Paper No. 4474, September.

Easton, Brian (1984) “Some Estimates of Export and Import Price Indices Before 1914”, Appendix 2 in Easton, Brian and N Wilson (1984), An Investigation of the Data Base of New Zealand’s Terms of Trade, NZIER Working Paper No. 84/10.

Fox, Kevin J., Ulrich Kohli and Ronald S. Warren, Jr. (2003) “Sources of Growth and Output Gaps in New Zealand: New Methods and Evidence”. New Zealand Economic Papers 37(1): 67-92.

Gillitzer, Christian and Jonathan Kearns (2005) “Long-Term Patterns in Australia’s Terms of Trade.” Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion Paper, April.

Grilli, Enzo R. and Maw C. Yang (1988) “Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows.” World Bank Economic Review 2: 1-48.

Grimes, Arthur (2006) “A Smooth Ride: Terms of Trade, Volatility and GDP Growth”. Journal of Asian Economics (forthcoming).

Hadass, Yael S. and Jeffrey G. Williamson (2001) “Terms of Trade Shocks and Economic Performance 1870-1940: Prebisch and Singer Revisited.” NBER Working Paper No. 8188, March.

Harberger, Arnold (1950) “Currency Depreciation, Income and the Balance of Trade”. Journal of Political Economy 58: 47-60.

Harrington, Alex (2005) “The Contribution of the Primary Sector to New Zealand’s Economic Growth.” New Zealand Treasury Policy Perspectives Paper 05/04, November.

Henry, Ken (2006) “The Fiscal and Economic Outlook”. Address to the Australian Business Economists, Sydney, 16 May 2006 http://www.treasury.gov.au/contentitem.asp?NavId=008&ContentID=1112

Kaplinsky, Raphael (2005a) “Revisiting the Revisited Terms of Trade: Will China Make a Difference?” Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, and Centre for Research in Innovation Management, University of Brighton, November.

Kellard, Neil and Mark E. Wohar (2006) “On the Prevalence of Trends in Primary Commodity Prices.” Journal of Development Economics 79(1): 146-167.

Kent, Christopher and Paul Cashin (2003) “The Response of the Current Account to Terms of Trade Shocks: Persistence Matters.” Washington DC, International Monetary Fund Working Paper 03/143, July.

Kohli, Ulrich (2003) “Terms of Trade, Real GDP, and Real Value Added: A New Look at New Zealand’s Growth Performance.” New Zealand Economic Papers 37(1): 41-66.

Laursen, Sven and Lloyd Metzler (1950) “Flexible Exchange Rates and the Theory of Employment”. Review of Economic and Statistics 32: 281-299.

Lutz, Matthias (1994) “The Effects of Volatility in the Terms of Trade on Output Growth: New Evidence.” World Development 22(12): 1959-1975.

Lutz, Matthias (1999) “A General Test of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis.” Review of Development Economics 3(1): 44-57.

McIlraith, James W (1911) The Courses of Prices in New Zealand: An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Variations in the Standard of Value in New Zealand, (Wellington, Government Printing Office)

Mendoza, Enrique G. (1997) “Terms of Trade Uncertainty and Economic Growth.” Journal of Development Economics 54: 323-356.

Obstfeld, Maurice (1982) “Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?” Quarterly Journal of Economics 97: 251-270.

OECD (2004) “Analysis of the 2003 CAP Reform”.

Phillips, Chris (2006) “Dairy Challenges in an Evolving Export Market, Competition from South America” Paper presented at the ABARE Outlook Conference, February/March 2006.

Powell, Andrew (1991) “Commodity and Developing Country Terms of Trade: What Does the Long Run Show?” The Economic Journal 101(409): 1485-1496.

Prebisch, Raul (1950) “The Economic Development of Latin America and its Principal Problems”. Sponsored by the Economic Commission for Latin America, United Nations, New York.

Rae, Allan N. and Anna Strutt (2004) “Multilateral Agricultural Trade Reform: Potential Impacts of Current Negotiations on New Zealand”. New Zealand Economic Papers, 38(2): 175-205.

Sachs, J. and A. Warner (2001) “Economic Reform and the Process of Economic Integration”. Brookings Paper on Economic Activity 1:1-53.

Singer, Hans W. (1950) “The Distribution of Gains Between Investing and Borrowing Countries”. American Economic Review 40: 473-485.

Turnovsky, Stephen J. and Pradip Chattopadhyay (1998) “Volatility and Growth in Developing Economies: Some Numerical Results and Empirical Evidence.” University of Washington Discussion Papers in Economics No. 0055.

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