5.6 Sensitivity analysis
As mentioned earlier, the cost estimates in this paper have been derived on the basis of assumed total volumes for each category of crime, using multipliers. Table 9 shows how much a one percent increase in the assumed total volume (i.e. after the multiplier effect) for each crime category would increase the estimated costs of crime.
|
2003/04 $ million |
1% increase in volume of crime |
|---|---|
| Offences against the person | 36 |
| – Violent offences | 25 |
| – Sexual offences | 10 |
| – Robbery | 1 |
| Offences against private property | 30 |
| – Burglary | 7 |
| – Theft | 11 |
| – Property damage | 3 |
| – Fraud | 10 |
| Offences with no direct or intended victim | 8 |
| – Drug offences | 0 |
| – Serious traffic | 8 |
| – All other | 0 |
| Total | 74 |
The cost estimates are also sensitive to assumptions around the value of property lost per crime, intangibles and lost output. A one percent increase in the assumed unit cost for each of these would increase our estimates of the costs of crime, by the amounts shown in Table 10.
|
2003/04 $ million |
1% increase in unit costs for: | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Property lost | Intangible costs | Output costs | |
| Offences against the person | 0 | 25 | 7 |
| – Violent offences | 0 | 16 | 5 |
| – Sexual offences | 0 | 8 | 2 |
| – Robbery | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Offences against private property | 18 | 9 | 0 |
| – Burglary | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| – Theft | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| – Property damage | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| – Fraud | 9 | 1 | 0 |
| Offences with no direct or intended victim | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| – Drug offences | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| – Serious traffic | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| – All other | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 18 | 39 | 10 |
