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4.2  Changes in Fuel Mix

This subsection examines the annual minimum disruption changes to fuel efficiency and use necessary to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 1 percent.

The elements of the matrix, which describe the quantity of fuel required per unit of gross output, vary subject only to the carbon reduction constraint being achieved. Consequently, the changes given in Table 3 are all non-positive values, which are again expressed in percentage terms.

The largest annual rate of change required is in the use of crude petroleum by petroleum and industrial chemical manufacturing (industry no. 18). The only other required change over one percent is in the use of natural gas by rubber, plastic and other chemical product manufacturing (industry no. 19). All other changes are either zero or negligible, suggesting that achieving a 1 percent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions purely through fuel substitution is feasible.

The required changes to the fuel-use coefficients are again proportional to the carbon dioxide intensity of each fuel for each industry. Consequently, the changes required for a 2 percent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions are simply double those shown in Table 3 and for this reason are not reported.

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Table 2– Minimum Disruption Changes to Final Demand
IGC Code IGC Description Final Demand Carbon Intensity Employment Weight R Only R=-0.01 G=0.02 G=0.02 E=0.02 G=0.02 G=0.015 E=0.015 G=0.02 E=0.02
IGC Code IGC Description Final Demand Carbon Intensity Employment Weight R Only R=-0.01 G=0.02 G=0.02 E=0.02 G=0.02 G=0.015 E=0.015 G=0.02 E=0.02
1 Horticulture and fruit growing 896,214 0.96 0.017 -0.472 -1.3425 -0.7122 -2.0309 -1.2052 -1.3886
2 Livestock and cropping farming 213,229 0.40 0.034 -0.047 0.0077 1.3626 -0.0260 1.3268 1.3320
3 Dairy cattle farming 213,893 0.40 0.017 -0.047 0.0096 0.6760 -0.0235 0.6405 0.6460
4 Other farming 161,922 0.58 0.001 -0.051 -0.0715 -0.0837 -0.1278 -0.1302 -0.1377
5 Services to agriculture, hunting and trapping 111,614 0.68 0.007 -0.042 -0.0811 -0.0852 -0.1326 -0.1254 -0.1354
6 Forestry and logging 1,127,374 0.34 0.005 -0.208 0.2545 0.1646 0.1615 0.0286 0.0880
7 Fishing 173,891 0.68 0.002 -0.065 -0.1255 -0.1379 -0.2053 -0.1999 -0.2153
8 Mining and quarrying 367,660 0.41 0.003 -0.083 0.0057 -0.0225 -0.0553 -0.0862 -0.0783
9 Oil & gas exploration & extraction 229,624 0.23 0.000 -0.029 0.1206 0.1014 0.1291 0.0909 0.1133
10 Meat and meat product manufacturing 4,150,526 0.41 0.015 -0.945 0.0335 -0.2953 -0.6680 -1.0210 -0.9370
11 Dairy product manufacturing 4,174,399 0.58 0.006 -1.324 -1.8512 -2.1799 -3.3065 -3.3793 -3.5762
12 Other food manufacturing 3,370,380 0.43 0.015 -0.795 -0.1136 -0.3781 -0.7392 -1.0026 -0.9553
13 Beverage, malt and tobacco manufacturing 1,171,464 0.31 0.003 -0.198 0.3569 0.2619 0.2971 0.1437 0.2193
14 Textile and apparel manufacturing 1,854,639 0.25 0.016 -0.258 0.8435 0.6995 0.8596 0.5814 0.7427
15 Wood product manufacturing 877,534 0.39 0.010 -0.188 0.0667 0.0015 -0.0580 -0.1373 -0.1106
16 Paper & paper product manufacturing 1,357,094 0.40 0.006 -0.297 0.0728 -0.0344 -0.1320 -0.2563 -0.2196
17 Printing, publishing & recorded media 594,218 0.28 0.015 -0.090 0.2337 0.1944 0.2244 0.1471 0.1934
18 Petroleum and industrial chemical manufacturing 1,069,290 3.64 0.003 -2.141 -9.5474 -9.5919 -13.5292 -12.1604 -13.5655
19 Rubber, plastic and other chemical product manufacturing 1,478,374 1.83 0.011 -1.491 -5.8031 -5.8915 -8.3660 -7.5995 -8.4377
20 Non-metallic mineral product manufacturing 144,620 0.66 0.004 -0.052 -0.0958 -0.1042 -0.1588 -0.1538 -0.1654
21 Basic metal manufacturing 671,546 1.40 0.005 -0.516 -1.8257 -1.8692 -2.6676 -2.4431 -2.7028
22 Structural, sheet and fabricated metal product manufacturing 761,224 0.37 0.017 -0.155 0.0981 0.0473 0.0061 -0.0634 -0.0341
23 Transport equipment manufacturing 1,629,210 0.23 0.006 -0.202 0.8661 0.7338 0.9300 0.6615 0.8218
24 Machinery & equipment manufacturing 2,805,651 0.29 0.019 -0.452 0.9610 0.7407 0.8601 0.4837 0.6806
25 Furniture and other manufacturing 977,413 0.29 0.011 -0.153 0.3566 0.2828 0.3301 0.1985 0.2704
26 Electricity generation and supply 1,256,515 1.21 0.005 -0.837 -2.7632 -2.8508 -4.0787 -3.7616 -4.1503
27 Gas supply 188,335 0.36 0.001 -0.037 0.0307 0.0157 0.0105 -0.0099 -0.0017
28 Water supply 720 0.26 0.001 0.000 0.0003 0.0008 0.0003 0.0007 0.0008
29 Construction 8,246,331 0.32 0.066 -1.462 2.1587 1.5212 1.5971 0.5994 1.0789
30 Wholesale trade 7,874,809 0.24 0.049 -1.031 3.8996 3.2738 4.0945 2.8520 3.5844
31 Retail trade 8,105,204 0.24 0.130 -1.086 3.8902 3.3003 4.0416 2.8326 3.5684
32 Accommodation, restaurants and bars 2,859,420 0.26 0.044 -0.412 1.2253 1.0166 1.2202 0.8150 1.0526
33 Road transport 456,138 0.35 0.017 -0.088 0.0819 0.0557 0.0359 -0.0051 0.0159
34 Water and rail transport 693,698 0.70 0.005 -0.266 -0.5385 -0.5891 -0.8722 -0.8462 -0.9133
35 Air transport, services to transport and storage 3,001,753 0.86 0.019 -1.424 -3.7048 -3.9212 -5.6955 -5.3757 -5.8716
36 Communication services 1,706,165 0.07 0.018 -0.063 1.6531 1.5192 2.0168 1.6290 1.9084
37 Finance 1,181,042 0.05 0.022 -0.032 1.2017 1.1154 1.4764 1.2054 1.4074
38 Insurance 1,205,743 0.06 0.004 -0.039 1.1942 1.0936 1.4615 1.1779 1.3792
39 Services to finance and insurance 50,149 0.06 0.008 -0.002 0.0497 0.0507 0.0608 0.0540 0.0624
40 Real estate 3,053,166 0.06 0.012 -0.109 2.9764 2.7226 3.6345 2.9243 3.4269
41 Ownership of owner-occupied dwellings 8,693,724 0.07 0.000 -0.311 8.4695 7.7241 10.3411 8.2982 9.7282
42 Equipment hire and investors in other property 249,195 0.12 0.000 -0.016 0.2059 0.1847 0.2448 0.1919 0.2274
43 Business services 1,561,393 0.10 0.090 -0.082 1.3895 1.3170 1.6733 1.3841 1.6218
44 Central government administration, defence, public order and safety services 5,158,249 0.19 0.044 -0.533 3.2718 2.8666 3.6848 2.7687 3.3556
45 Local Government Administration Services and Civil Defence 2,537,488 0.17 0.014 -0.241 1.7173 1.5127 1.9634 1.4917 1.7965
46 Education 4,272,040 0.10 0.076 -0.239 3.7313 3.4180 4.4797 3.5902 4.2290
47 Health and community services 5,793,658 0.15 0.072 -0.474 4.3032 3.8607 5.0170 3.9066 4.6597
48 Cultural and recreational services 2,047,472 0.11 0.022 -0.121 1.7534 1.5937 2.0983 1.6680 1.9689
49 Personal and other community services 1,158,033 0.14 0.031 -0.087 0.9006 0.8229 1.0593 0.8416 0.9982
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