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Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reductions in New Zealand: A Minimum Disruption Approach - WP 04/25

4  Minimum Disruption Calculations

This section applies to New Zealand the minimum disruption approach described in section 2.

4.1  Final Demands

Table 2 provides the annual changes to the elements of the final demand vector, , which minimise disruptions to final demand while satisfying the constraints described. All values are expressed in percentage terms. Additionally, Table 2 gives the final demand, carbon intensity and employment weight of each industry.

Column 4 of Table 2, labeled only, represents the results of the minimum disruption approach where the only constraint is a 1 percent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. Accordingly, all industries are required to reduce their final demand. The largest annual rate of reduction in final demand is for petroleum and industrial chemical manufacturing (industry no. 18) at -2.141 percent, followed by rubber, plastic and other chemical product manufacturing (industry no. 19) at -1.491 percent and construction (industry no. 29) at -1.462 percent.

The annual reductions in final demand are proportional to the carbon dioxide intensities of each industry, as seen from equation(17). Therefore, those industries whose products are most carbon intensive are required to achieve the greatest reductions in final demand, as shown by Figure 1. In addition, the changes in final demand required to achieve a 2 percent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions are simply double those for the 1 percent case. For this reason, they are not displayed in Table 2.

Figure 1 – Carbon Intensity and Changes in Final Demands with Carbon Dioxide Reductions Only
Figure 1 – Carbon Intensity and Changes in Final Demands with Carbon Dioxide Reductions Only.

As mentioned in section 2, these reductions should not be viewed as realistic values to be pursued, but instead benchmarks against which later results may be compared.

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