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Trade and Migration to New Zealand - WP 04/18

Appendix (continued)

Appendix Table 5– Allowing elasticity to change with the number of migrants, excluding agriculture and oil
Variable Exports (Excluding Agriculture) Imports (Excluding Oil)
  Selection Trade Selection Trade
Migrant Stock 0.6787***(0.0497) -0.0084(0.0297) 0.3303***(0.0549) 0.5234***(0.0261)
Square of Migrant Stock -0.0594***(0.0049) 0.0097***(0.002) -0.0377***(0.0049) -0.0294***(0.0018)
Zero Migrants 0.7859***(0.1005) 0.3657***(0.0942) 0.6452***(0.1119) 0.6215***(0.0745)
Foreign GDP 0.2326***(0.0725) 1.2161***(0.0544) -0.2947***(0.0889) 1.5916***(0.0672)
New Zealand GDP 0.8668(0.7638) -1.4047***(0.4479) 2.9532***(0.7061) 2.3633***(0.4292)
World GDP 2.4298***(0.4383) 0.4006*(0.2417) 0.0088(0.4247) -0.5227**(0.2405)
Population -0.5959***(0.1963) 0.8446***(0.1359) -0.1637(0.2379) -0.7077***(0.1262)
Distance -2.3857***(0.1441) -1.9993***(0.041) -2.0313***(0.1259) -1.1945***(0.0384)
Non-English 0.1784***(0.0605) 0.354***(0.0366) 0.8423***(0.0604) -0.3685***(0.0351)
Average Migrant Stock 0.1799***(0.0332) 0.4534***(0.0255) 0.4228***(0.0392) 0.3361***(0.021)
Average Foreign GDP 0.5453***(0.0802) -0.4676***(0.0562) 0.8465***(0.095) -0.7066***(0.0679)
Average Population -0.0433(0.1978) -1.1322***(0.1364) -0.1363(0.24) 0.7789***(0.1272)
1995 Dummy -0.0835(0.1162) 0.334***(0.0645) 0.0205(0.1067) -0.1569***(0.0581)
Log Likelihood -889.9513 -6016.3110 -945.2068 -5543.5900
Observations 3385 2574 3385 2388
Countries 179 175 179 171

Notes – For definitions of the variables refer to Table 3.  A constant term and country specific effects are included in all regressions.  Dependent variables are in 1995 New Zealand dollars.  Three stars (***) indicates that the coefficient is significantly different from zero at the 1% significance level, two stars (**) indicates that it is significant at the 5% level, and one star (*) indicates that it is significant at the 10% level.

– The effect of migration on tourism exports for the period 1996 to 2001

Appendix Table 6– The effect of migration on tourism exports for the period 1996 to 2001
Variable Tourism Exports (Model One) Tourism Exports (Model Two)
  Selection Trade Selection Trade
Migrant Stock 0.3024***(0.0565) 0.2229***(0.0158) 0.3435***(0.1166) -0.2884***(0.02)
Square of Migrant Stock --- --- -0.0071(0.0164) 0.0685***(0.0012)
Zero Migrants -0.0294(0.2153) 0.3413***(0.0658) 0.0308(0.2621) -0.7807***(0.0686)
Foreign GDP 0.4538***(0.1568) 0.8192***(0.0401) 0.4586***(0.158) 0.8798***(0.036)
New Zealand GDP -4.0545(3.6708) 3.0583***(0.7369) -3.9886(3.694) 2.1228***(0.6642)
World GDP 3.0966(3.3804) -1.1532*(0.6882) 3.0365(3.4028) -0.6598(0.6183)
Population 0.488(0.5068) -1.9789***(0.1229) 0.4987(0.5072) -1.7778***(0.114)
Distance -2.5969***(0.2473) -2.0869***(0.0242) -2.5882***(0.2481) -1.4652***(0.0223)
Non-English 0.2092**(0.1045) -0.0669***(0.02) 0.2145**(0.1047) -0.3331***(0.0187)
Average Migrant Stock 0.1198**(0.0568) 0.1244***(0.0156) 0.1285**(0.0583) -0.0474***(0.0141)
Average Foreign GDP -0.0039(0.1679) -0.041(0.0415) -0.0102(0.1696) -0.13***(0.0373)
Average Population -0.6898(0.5223) 1.6046***(0.1254) -0.6987(0.5227) 1.4699***(0.1164)
Log Likelihood -268.3399 -1240.788 -268.3183 -1229.783
Observations 1052 851 1052 851
Countries 178 172 178 172

Notes – For definitions of the variables refer to Table 3.  A constant term and country specific effects are included in all regressions.  Dependent variables are short term visitor flows to New Zealand during any given year.  Three stars (***) indicates that the coefficient is significantly different from zero at the 1% significance level, two stars (**) indicates that it is significant at the 5% level, and one star (*) indicates that it is significant at the 10% level.


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