Appendix – Supplementary data and estimation results
| Population by region of birth (thousands) | Exports excluding agriculture by region (NZ$1995 millions) | Imports excluding oil by region (NZ$1995 millions) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1981 | 2001 | Incr. | 1981 | 2001 | Incr. | 1981 | 2001 | Incr. | |
| Australia | 44 | 56 | 28% | 1,165 | 3,990 | 242% | 1,253 | 4,926 | 293% |
| East Asia & Pacific | 76 | 253 | 233% | 1,591 | 5,060 | 218% | 1,942 | 7,213 | 271% |
| Europe & Central Asia | 47 | 67 | 42% | 782 | 1,009 | 29% | 895 | 4,227 | 372% |
| Mid East & N Africa | 2 | 12 | 679% | 144 | 157 | 9% | 12 | 369 | 3035% |
| North America | 12 | 21 | 81% | 467 | 2,253 | 382% | 1,680 | 4,504 | 168% |
| South America | 2 | 4 | 74% | 22 | 224 | 915% | 60 | 327 | 448% |
| South Asia | 7 | 31 | 313% | 110 | 173 | 58% | 62 | 244 | 292% |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 8 | 36 | 381% | 22 | 73 | 227% | 28 | 120 | 325% |
| United Kingdom | 253 | 217 | -14% | 243 | 498 | 105% | 767 | 1,003 | 31% |
| Unspecified | 14 | 149 | 979% | 359 | 451 | 26% | 121 | 675 | 460% |
| New Zealand | 2,679 | 2,891 | 8% | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Total | 3,143 | 3,737 | 19% | 4,906 | 13,888 | 183% | 6,819 | 23,607 | 246% |
Source – Population data from Statistics New Zealand unpublished census tabulations. Trade estimates calculated from the United Nations Statistics Division’s Comtrade database. The original Comtrade data were denominated in US dollars. For a description of the conversion to NZ dollars, see Section 2.
| Variable | Exports (Excluding Agriculture) | Imports (Excluding Oil) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selection | Trade | Selection | Trade | |
| Migrant Stock | 0.337***(0.0371) | 0.1481***(0.0266) | 0.0081(0.0386) | 0.1234***(0.0209) |
| Migrant Stock x Non-English | -0.0312(0.0246) | -0.0172(0.0131) | 0.1166***(0.0243) | 0.1311***(0.0126) |
| Zero Migrants | 0.3001***(0.0818) | 0.5724***(0.0854) | 0.3471***(0.0917) | 0.1829***(0.0674) |
| Foreign GDP | 0.2354***(0.0736) | 1.2291***(0.054) | -0.3185***(0.0897) | 1.4846***(0.0667) |
| New Zealand GDP | 0.9014(0.7676) | -1.7998***(0.4583) | 3.0065***(0.712) | 2.3324***(0.4301) |
| World GDP | 2.4517***(0.4441) | 0.7697***(0.2464) | -0.1135(0.4281) | -0.5964**(0.2417) |
| Population | -0.7934***(0.1962) | 0.8319***(0.1405) | -0.1479(0.2356) | -0.4967***(0.1261) |
| Distance | -1.7268***(0.1373) | -2.188***(0.0423) | -2.0216***(0.1266) | -0.7577***(0.0385) |
| Non-English | 0.2182*(0.1154) | 0.4086***(0.0756) | 0.6323***(0.1172) | -1.0876***(0.0764) |
| Average Migrant Stock | 0.0172(0.0349) | 0.4232***(0.027) | 0.411***(0.0392) | 0.3218***(0.0205) |
| Average Foreign GDP | 0.5505***(0.0811) | -0.3961***(0.0557) | 0.76***(0.0954) | -0.5905***(0.0675) |
| Average Population | 0.1412(0.1977) | -1.1943***(0.1408) | -0.0838(0.2373) | 0.5715***(0.1271) |
| 1995 Dummy | -0.0852(0.1166) | 0.3231***(0.0679) | 0.0163(0.1069) | -0.1452**(0.0579) |
| Log Likelihood | -894.3325 | -6036.8280 | -947.3310 | -5548.5210 |
| Observations | 3385 | 2574 | 3385 | 2388 |
| Countries | 179 | 175 | 179 | 171 |
Notes – For definitions of the variables refer to Table 3. A constant term and country specific effects are included in all regressions. Dependent variables are in 1995 New Zealand dollars. Three stars (***) indicates that the coefficient is significantly different from zero at the 1% significance level, two stars (**) indicates that it is significant at the 5% level, and one star (*) indicates that it is significant at the 10% level.
