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Trade and Migration to New Zealand - WP 04/18

Appendix – Supplementary data and estimation results

Appendix Table 1– Changes in New Zealand’s migrant stock, exports excluding agriculture, and imports excluding oil, by region, 1981-2001
  Population by region of birth (thousands) Exports excluding agriculture by region (NZ$1995 millions) Imports excluding oil by region  (NZ$1995 millions)
1981 2001 Incr. 1981 2001 Incr. 1981 2001 Incr.
Australia 44 56 28% 1,165 3,990 242% 1,253 4,926 293%
East Asia & Pacific 76 253 233% 1,591 5,060 218% 1,942 7,213 271%
Europe & Central Asia 47 67 42% 782 1,009 29% 895 4,227 372%
Mid East & N Africa 2 12 679% 144 157 9% 12 369 3035%
North America 12 21 81% 467 2,253 382% 1,680 4,504 168%
South America 2 4 74% 22 224 915% 60 327 448%
South Asia 7 31 313% 110 173 58% 62 244 292%
Sub-Saharan Africa 8 36 381% 22 73 227% 28 120 325%
United Kingdom 253 217 -14% 243 498 105% 767 1,003 31%
Unspecified 14 149 979% 359 451 26% 121 675 460%
New Zealand 2,679 2,891 8% - - - - - -
Total 3,143 3,737 19% 4,906 13,888 183% 6,819 23,607 246%

Source – Population data from Statistics New Zealand unpublished census tabulations. Trade estimates calculated from the United Nations Statistics Division’s Comtrade database.  The original Comtrade data were denominated in US dollars.  For a description of the conversion to NZ dollars, see Section 2.

Appendix Table 2 – Allowing the effect of migrants to vary by language, excluding agriculture and oil
Variable Exports (Excluding Agriculture) Imports (Excluding Oil)
  Selection Trade Selection Trade
Migrant Stock 0.337***(0.0371) 0.1481***(0.0266) 0.0081(0.0386) 0.1234***(0.0209)
Migrant Stock x Non-English -0.0312(0.0246) -0.0172(0.0131) 0.1166***(0.0243) 0.1311***(0.0126)
Zero Migrants 0.3001***(0.0818) 0.5724***(0.0854) 0.3471***(0.0917) 0.1829***(0.0674)
Foreign GDP 0.2354***(0.0736) 1.2291***(0.054) -0.3185***(0.0897) 1.4846***(0.0667)
New Zealand GDP 0.9014(0.7676) -1.7998***(0.4583) 3.0065***(0.712) 2.3324***(0.4301)
World GDP 2.4517***(0.4441) 0.7697***(0.2464) -0.1135(0.4281) -0.5964**(0.2417)
Population -0.7934***(0.1962) 0.8319***(0.1405) -0.1479(0.2356) -0.4967***(0.1261)
Distance -1.7268***(0.1373) -2.188***(0.0423) -2.0216***(0.1266) -0.7577***(0.0385)
Non-English 0.2182*(0.1154) 0.4086***(0.0756) 0.6323***(0.1172) -1.0876***(0.0764)
Average Migrant Stock 0.0172(0.0349) 0.4232***(0.027) 0.411***(0.0392) 0.3218***(0.0205)
Average Foreign GDP 0.5505***(0.0811) -0.3961***(0.0557) 0.76***(0.0954) -0.5905***(0.0675)
Average Population 0.1412(0.1977) -1.1943***(0.1408) -0.0838(0.2373) 0.5715***(0.1271)
1995 Dummy -0.0852(0.1166) 0.3231***(0.0679) 0.0163(0.1069) -0.1452**(0.0579)
Log Likelihood -894.3325 -6036.8280 -947.3310 -5548.5210
Observations 3385 2574 3385 2388
Countries 179 175 179 171

Notes – For definitions of the variables refer to Table 3.  A constant term and country specific effects are included in all regressions.  Dependent variables are in 1995 New Zealand dollars.  Three stars (***) indicates that the coefficient is significantly different from zero at the 1% significance level, two stars (**) indicates that it is significant at the 5% level, and one star (*) indicates that it is significant at the 10% level.

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