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Trade and Migration to New Zealand - WP 04/18

7.1  Benchmark results (continued)

Table 5– Benchmark results, excluding agriculture and oil
Variable Exports (Excluding Agriculture) Imports (Excluding Oil)
  Selection Trade Selection Trade
Migrant Stock 0.3168*** (0.0251) 0.1365*** (0.0368) 0.0784** (0.0187) >0.2223*** (0.0343)
Zero Migrants 0.3163*** (0.0796) 0.5876*** (0.0829) 0.2712*** (0.0875) 0.0544 (0.0666)
Foreign GDP 0.2301*** (0.0732) 1.2235*** (0.054) -0.3085*** (0.0897) 1.497*** (0.0666)
New Zealand GDP 0.9061 (0.7669) -1.7969*** (0.458) 2.9894*** (0.7083) 2.3288*** (0.4265)
World GDP 2.4103*** (0.4419) 0.7683*** (0.2457) -0.0108 (0.4242) -0.5856** (0.2395)
Population -0.7502*** (0.194) 0.8398*** (0.1405) -0.2379 (0.2346) -0.5861*** (0.1237)
Distance -1.7725*** (0.1373) -2.1972*** (0.042) -1.9731*** (0.1256) -0.9596*** (0.0374)
Non-English 0.0794 (0.0622) 0.3262*** (0.0375) 1.1437*** (0.0608) -0.3814*** (0.0352)
Average Migrant Stock 0.012 (0.0342) 0.425*** (0.0268) 0.4162*** (0.0394) 0.3232*** (0.0203)
Average Foreign GDP 0.5525*** (0.0808) -0.3884*** (0.0557) 0.7413*** (0.0952) -0.6645*** (0.0673)
Average Population 0.101 (0.1964) -1.2046*** (0.1408) -0.0201 (0.2368) 0.7015*** (0.1248)
1995 Dummy -0.0845 (0.1166) 0.3232*** (0.0678) 0.0131 (0.107) -0.1425** (0.0573)
Log Likelihood -894.3868 -6036.8670 -948.6351 -5549.9280
Observations 3385 2574 3385 2388
Countries 179 175 179 171

Notes – For definitions of the variables refer to Table 3. A constant term and country specific effects are included in all regressions. Dependent variables are in 1995 New Zealand dollars. Three stars (***) indicates that the coefficient is significantly different from zero at the 1% significance level, two stars (**) indicates that it is significant at the 5% level, and one star (*) indicates that it is significant at the 10% level.

As expected the effect of these exclusions is to increase the coefficient estimates on Migrant Stock in the trade equations for both exports (excluding agriculture) and imports (excluding oil).

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