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Tables (continued)

Table 5 - Regression Analysis of Employment Growth, 1986-2001
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
Higher degree 0.965 0.733 0.723 0.700 0.721
(0.053) (0.042) (0.050) (0.039) (0.023)
Bachelor's degree 1.276 1.052 1.035 0.995 1.023
(0.043) (0.034) (0.042) (0.032) (0.019)
Other post-school 0.228 0.168 0.165 0.172 0.188
(0.022) (0.017) (0.021) (0.016) (0.009)
Higher school 1.230 1.148 1.136 1.134 1.143
(0.061) (0.046) (0.054) (0.042) (0.025)
Sixth form 0.908 0.850 0.840 0.854 0.866
(0.036) (0.028) (0.032) (0.025) (0.015)
School certificate 0.676 0.638 0.647 0.649 0.655
(0.029) (0.022) (0.026) (0.020) (0.012)
Other school 2.060 1.967 2.051 2.011 2.009
(0.134) (0.101) (0.118) (0.091) (0.053)
Not specified 0.640 0.587 0.593 0.576 0.574
(0.044) (0.033) (0.039) (0.030) (0.018)
Industry Y Y Y Y
Occupation Y Y Y Y
Industry-Occupation Y Y
R2 0.325 0.372 0.241 0.464 0.678 0.621 0.482 0.695 0.910
Marginal R2
Qualifications 0.325 0.249 0.241 0.231 0.232
Industry 0.372 0.223 0.296 0.213
Occupation 0.241 0.092 0.157 0.074
Industry-Occupation 0.678 0.585

Notes: The dependent variable is dempioq,8601 = (Empioq,01 – Empioq,86)/(0.5(Empioq,86 + Empioq,01)). All specifications are based on population growth in 4473 industry-occupation-qualification cells, and are weighted by 1986 cell size, Empioq,86. The qualification-specific population changes are measured relative to the change of the no-qualifications group.

Table 6 - Correlation of Employment Changes by Qualification, 1986-2001
Controls Higher degree Bachelor’s degree Post-school Higher school Sixth form School certificate Other school No Quals
Higher Degree None 0.497
Ind 0.322
Ind, Occ 0.313
Ind*Occ 0.238
Bachelor's Degree None 0.839 0.354
Ind 0.749 0.250
Ind, Occ 0.744 0.253
Ind*Occ 0.655 0.179
Post-School None 0.717 0.742 0.347
Ind 0.528 0.591 0.183
Ind, Occ 0.483 0.560 0.132
Ind*Occ 0.138 0.215 0.036
Higher School None 0.672 0.744 0.803 0.398
Ind 0.458 0.590 0.633 0.219
Ind, Occ 0.421 0.570 0.549 0.191
Ind*Occ 0.174 0.357 0.037 0.118
Sixth Form None 0.603 0.681 0.795 0.922 0.371
Ind 0.358 0.507 0.636 0.862 0.218
Ind, Occ 0.314 0.484 0.554 0.842 0.191
Ind*Occ -0.039 0.179 -0.095 0.726 0.100
School Certificate None 0.591 0.642 0.819 0.845 0.937 0.382
Ind 0.315 0.422 0.657 0.714 0.889 0.204
Ind, Occ 0.254 0.382 0.561 0.664 0.870 0.168
Ind*Occ -0.172 -0.023 -0.173 0.391 0.741 0.079
Other School None 0.506 0.636 0.588 0.679 0.731 0.700 0.217
Ind 0.323 0.555 0.432 0.529 0.622 0.559 0.239
Ind, Occ 0.288 0.541 0.326 0.476 0.581 0.500 0.221
Ind*Occ 0.113 0.413 -0.081 0.312 0.429 0.304 0.192
No Quals None 0.577 0.588 0.820 0.740 0.817 0.922 0.602 0.324
Ind 0.286 0.341 0.657 0.514 0.675 0.849 0.465 0.170
Ind, Occ 0.228 0.303 0.557 0.430 0.622 0.817 0.396 0.141
Ind*Occ -0.188 -0.130 -0.144 -0.012 0.255 0.616 0.177 0.071

Notes: The first row of each block (labelled “none”) is based on the raw population changes across industry-occupation cells for each pair of qualifications; the second, third and fourth rows control for industry, industry and occupation, and industry-occupation interaction effects respectively, using the residuals from the regressions reported in Table 4, columns (2), (4) and (5). The diagonal entries in bold are the within qualification group variances; all other entries are correlations of population changes for pairs of qualifications. We have omitted the correlations pertaining to the ‘not specified’ qualification group.

Table 7 - Decomposition of Changes in the Value of Human Capital, 1986-2001
Employed Workers Labour Force Whole Population
A: 1986 – 2001
1. Percentage change in value of Human Capital 19.5 18.2 18.7
Percentage due to change in:
2. Qualification-shares 18.2 18.1 13.0
3. Qualification-incomes 73.9 72.2 77.7
4. Interaction 7.9 9.7 9.3
B: 1986 – 1991
1. Percentage change 8.1 5.5 3.8
Percentage due to change in:
2. Qualification-shares 32.4 47.4 67.6
3. Qualification-incomes 62.0 45.1 23.0
4. Interaction 5.6 7.5 9.4
C: 1991 – 1996
1. Percentage change 3.2 4.6 4.6
Percentage due to change in:
2. Qualification-shares 36.7 28.2 17.8
3. Qualification-incomes 73.8 80.7 91.8
4. Interaction -10.5 -8.9 -9.6
D: 1996 – 2001
1. Percentage change 7.2 7.2 9.3
Percentage due to change in:
2. Qualification-shares 10.0 9.2 -9.3
3. Qualification-incomes 88.7 90.4 91.9
4. Interaction 1.3 0.5 17.4

Notes: The value of human capital here is defined as the average annual income across the relevant population, and the decomposition is constructed as follows:

where sqt denotes the qualification-q share of the population in year-t, yqt denotes qualification-q’s average income in year-t. The first term, reported in row 2, is the effect of changing qualification shares, holding incomes constant (this is also the change in skill intensity discussed earlier); the second, reported in row 3, is the effect of changing average qualification incomes, holding shares constant; and the third, reported in row 4, is the interaction effect associated with these two changes.

Table 8 - Decomposing the Change in the Value of Human Capital: Contributions by Qualification Group, 1986-2001
Qualification Employed Workers Labour Force Whole Population
Qualification Shares Qualification Incomes Interaction Qualification Shares Qualification Incomes Interaction Qualification Shares Qualification Incomes Interaction
Higher Degree 15.4 4.9 3.1 16.2 4.9 3.1 15.1 4.0 2.7
(84.6) (6.6) (39.2) (89.8) (6.8) (31.8) (93.7) (5.5) (28.2)
Bachelor's Degree 41.1 5.3 6.4 42.8 5.6 6.6 38.5 5.0 6.1
(225.7) (7.2) (80.9) (237.1) (7.7) (67.7) (239) (6.8) (63.1)
Post School -49.7 26.1 -7.0 -52.5 25.5 -6.8 -44.8 23.7 -6.1
(-272.6) (35.3) (-89.4) (-290.8) (35.2) (-70.5) (-277.9) (31.9) (-63.5)
Higher School 15.4 0.8 1.1 15.4 1.2 1.5 13.3 1.6 1.9
(84.5) (1.1) (14.1) (85.3) (1.6) (15.4) (82.3) (2.1) (19.4)
6th Form 19.7 7.0 3.7 20.2 7.5 3.8 17.7 7.7 3.8
(108.4) (9.5) (47.3) (111.6) (10.4) (39.6) (110.1) (10.4) (39.7)
School Certificate 10.4 11.8 2.1 10.1 12.7 2.1 7.0 14.6 1.8
(57.2) (15.9) (27) (55.7) (17.5) (21.3) (43.2) (19.7) (18.7)
Other School 18.4 0.4 4.5 20.0 0.4 4.5 20.4 0.3 3.7
(100.7) (0.6) (57.7) (110.5) (0.6) (46.2) (126.8) (0.4) (38.8)
No Quals -62.3 15.8 -6.9 -65.7 13.3 -5.7 -59.8 13.8 -5.7
(-341.8) (21.4) (-88.1) (-363.7) (18.4) (-58.5) (-370.7) (18.6) (-58.5)
Not Specified 9.7 1.8 0.9 11.7 1.2 0.7 8.6 3.4 1.4
(53.3) (2.4) (11.2) (64.5) (1.7) (6.9) (53.4) (4.6) (14.1)
Total 18.2 73.9 7.9 18.1 72.2 9.7 16.1 74.2 9.7

Notes: Entries are percentages of the total change in the value of human capital: these entries sum to the total in the final row for each column. Numbers in parentheses are percentages of the total entry in the final row.

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