3 Changing educational qualifications and skills
3.1 The changing distribution of qualifications
Table 1 summarises New Zealand’s changing distribution of qualifications over the four censuses from 1986 to 2001 for the population aged 20-59, and various subpopulations according to their labour force status. Panel A pertains to the employed workforce, panel B to those unemployed, panel C to those not in the labour force, and panel D pertains to the full population of interest.
Although the skill mix differs across these populations,[8] similar patterns of upskilling are evident in all four panels. In particular, there is a common pattern of rising shares of people with university-level and school-level qualifications and declining shares with other post-school qualifications and no qualifications. For example, the fraction of the population with university qualifications rose from 6.7% in 1986 to 13.0% in 2001, the fraction with school qualifications rose from 22.5% to 34.5%, while the fractions with other post-school qualifications and no qualifications fell from 29.1% to 20.9% and from 35.9% to 20.5% respectively. Also a much larger fraction of the population did not specify their highest qualification in 2001 (11%) than in the other years (around 5%).[9] Similar changes are apparent for the labour force status subpopulations.
Appendix Table A2 presents a detailed breakdown of the qualifications composition of the population aged 20-59 grouped according to gender, age, region, industry and occupation. This table shows the pattern of upskilling described above is remarkably consistent across a wide range of population subgroups. This pattern of upskilling is similar to that found for the US (eg, see Pryor and Schaffer, 1999).
The Treasury (2001) compares New Zealand’s qualification composition and changes with those of other OECD countries, and Australia in particular. The comparisons draw on summaries prepared by the OECD (2000a and 2000b). New Zealand’s increasing educational attainment has been somewhat slower than that of other OECD countries. Despite the fact that New Zealand’s average years of education increased between 1971 and 1998 from 10.3 years to 11.8 years, it dropped in ranking from 5th to 9th out of the 21 countries considered in Maré (2000).
Table 2 provides a comparison of New Zealand’s education performance with that of other selected OECD countries. The figures are for 1998 or 1999, and relate therefore to near the end of our study period. The first column shows the measure just mentioned – average years of education for the working age population, where New Zealand ranks lowest among the 6 countries shown. The three pairs of columns to the right show the variation in attainment composition that lies behind the differences in average years of education. For instance, Germany has the highest average years of education, the lowest level of tertiary educational attainment, but the highest “higher secondary & post-school” proportion. New Zealand has a relatively high proportion of its working age population with, at best, lower secondary attainment. Only Australia has a higher proportion.
These measures reflect past as well as current educational patterns. The rightmost columns in Table 2 show each country’s expected years of schooling,[10] which provides a better reflection of current education patterns. The expected years of tertiary education for New Zealanders is second only to that of the United States. The overall expected years of schooling is below the OECD average, but above the OECD average for part-time and for the sum of full-time and part-time.
Table 3 presents changes in the field of study for individuals with a degree qualification between 1996 and 2001.[11] Field of study information is also available for individuals with a non-degree post-school qualification and is included in Table A3. Unfortunately, changes between 1996 and 2001 in the way that respondents with “other post-school” qualifications were selected and classified make analysis of information on field of study for non-degree post-school qualifications problematic (see footnote 9). We will therefore concentrate on degree qualifications – further analysis examining relationships between field of study groups and employment and income growth has not been undertaken.
The proportion of people with a degree level qualification in the fields of Engineering, Architecture and Building, Agriculture and Environment, Society and Culture and Personal Services declined between 1996 and 2001 as shown in Table 3, however, only the field of Agriculture experienced an absolute decline in the number of individuals with a degree. The growth in degree qualifications was particularly strong within the Information Technology, Health,[12] Education and Creative Arts fields (61-67%).
Notes
- [8]Broadly speaking, employed workers tend to be more highly qualified than unemployed workers who, in turn, tend to be more highly qualified than non labour force participants.
- [9]In the 1986 and 1991 censuses respondents were asked to identify their post-school qualification(s) from a list of set answers. In the 1996 and 2001 censuses respondents were asked if they had a post-school qualification and then to write down the name(s) of their post-school qualification(s). The introduction of a written response to the post-school qualification question between 1991 and 1996 probably (according to SNZ) contributed to an increase in the number of people with an unidentified post-school qualification (this group also includes individuals that did not specify or state their post-school qualification). The unidentified school and post-school qualification groups were allocated to the not-specified qualification group in 1986, 1991 and 2001 and to the other school/post-school group in 1996, which probably suppressed the not-specified population in 1996 compared with 2001.
- [10]The OECD derives these figures “under current conditions in public and private institutions, excluding education for children under five years of age”.
- [11]The field of study question was not available prior to the 1996 census.
- [12]Health degrees increased by 10,584 (141.4%), whereas the number of health related other post-school qualifications decreased by 11,319. Although there was considerable change in the qualification mix of the health field between 1996 and 2001 the number of people with a health related qualification only changed by 624 individuals.
