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The Ageing of the New Zealand Population, 1881-2051 - WP 03/27

Publication Details

  • The Ageing of the New Zealand Population, 1881-2051
  • Published: Sep 2003
  • Status: Current
  • Author: Bryant, John
  • JEL Classification: J11; J14
  • Hard copy: Available in HTML and PDF formats only.

The Ageing of the New Zealand Population, 1881–2051

New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 03/27

Published September 2003

Author: John Bryant


The paper reviews data on long-term changes in the age structure of the New Zealand population. It sets out trends and projections for the age structure of the national population, and for associated measures of dependency. It describes the influences on age structure of fertility, mortality, and migration. Disaggregated results on age structure are presented, including ethnic differentials, regional variations, and fluctuations within narrowly-defined age groups. Comparisons are made with other OECD countries. Uncertainty, the likelihood of continued life expectancy gains, and life expectancy and health at older ages are discussed.


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Table of Contents

List of Tables

List of Figures

1 Introduction

2 Historical and projected trends in age structure

3 Proximate determinants of changes in age structure

4 Disaggregated measures

5 International comparisons

6 Population projections and uncertainty

7 Prospects for continued gains in life expectancy

8 Life expectancy at age 65

9 Conclusion

10 Appendix - Supplementary data

11 References

twp03-27.pdf (425 KB) pp. 1–24

List of Tables

List of Figures


Thank you to Roger Hurnard, Veronica Jacobsen, John Janssen, Brian McCulloch, Grant Scobie, and participants at a Treasury seminar for comments and suggestions.


The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the New Zealand Treasury. The paper is presented not as policy, but with a view to inform and stimulate wider debate.

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