The Ageing of the New Zealand Population, 1881–2051

New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 03/27

Published September 2003

Author: John Bryant

Abstract

The paper reviews data on long-term changes in the age structure of the New Zealand population. It sets out trends and projections for the age structure of the national population, and for associated measures of dependency. It describes the influences on age structure of fertility, mortality, and migration. Disaggregated results on age structure are presented, including ethnic differentials, regional variations, and fluctuations within narrowly-defined age groups. Comparisons are made with other OECD countries. Uncertainty, the likelihood of continued life expectancy gains, and life expectancy and health at older ages are discussed.

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Abstract Table of Contents List of Tables List of Figures 1 Introduction 2 Historical and projected trends in age structure 3 Proximate determinants of changes in age structure 3.1 Fertility 3.2 Mortality 3.3 Migration 4 Disaggregated measures 4.1 Ethnicity 4.2 Region 4.3 Narrow age groups 5 International comparisons 6 Population projections and uncertainty 7 Prospects for continued gains in life expectancy 8 Life expectancy at age 65 9 Conclusion 10 Appendix - Supplementary data 11 References	twp03-27.pdf (425 KB) pp. 1–24
List of Tables Table 1 – Total fertility rates, by ethnic group, 2001 Table 2 – Projection variants published by Statistics New Zealand Table 3 – Life expectancy at birth in 2051 Table 4 – Statistics New Zealand projection results for 2051 Table 5 – Cohort life expectancy at age 65 Table 6 – Historical and projected age distribution of the New Zealand population List of Figures Figure 1 – Historical and projected age structure for the New Zealand population Figure 2 – Historical and projected dependency ratios Figure 3 – Total and “economic” dependency ratios Figure 4 – Births per thousand population, 1860-2000 Figure 5 – Deaths per thousand population, by age-group, 1901, 1961, and 2001 Figure 6 – Life expectancy at birth, females Figure 7 – Net migration to New Zealand (thousands) Figure 8 – Permanent and long-term migration by age, 2001 and 2002 Figure 9 – Statistics New Zealand 2001-base projections for the total dependency ratio, with varying migration assumptions Figure 10 – Age-sex pyramids, by ethnicity, 2001 Figure 11 – Percent of population aged 65 and over, by District Health Board, 1991 and 2001 Figure 12 – Annual growth rates for the age groups 65-69 and 80-84 Figure 13 – Dependency ratios of OECD countries Figure 14 – Assumptions about female mortality rates used by Statistics New Zealand in 2001-base population projections Figure 15 – Life expectancy, males

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Abstract

List of Tables

List of Figures

1 Introduction

2 Historical and projected trends in age structure

3 Proximate determinants of changes in age structure

4 Disaggregated measures

5 International comparisons

6 Population projections and uncertainty

7 Prospects for continued gains in life expectancy

8 Life expectancy at age 65

9 Conclusion

10 Appendix - Supplementary data

11 References

twp03-27.pdf (425 KB) pp. 1–24

List of Tables

List of Figures

Acknowledgements

Thank you to Roger Hurnard, Veronica Jacobsen, John Janssen, Brian McCulloch, Grant Scobie, and participants at a Treasury seminar for comments and suggestions.

Disclaimer

The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the New Zealand Treasury. The paper is presented not as policy, but with a view to inform and stimulate wider debate.

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The Ageing of the New Zealand Population, 1881–2051

Abstract

Contents

Abstract

Table of Contents

List of Tables

List of Figures

1 Introduction

2 Historical and projected trends in age structure

3 Proximate determinants of changes in age structure

4 Disaggregated measures

5 International comparisons

6 Population projections and uncertainty

7 Prospects for continued gains in life expectancy

8 Life expectancy at age 65

9 Conclusion

10 Appendix - Supplementary data

11 References

List of Tables

List of Figures

Acknowledgements

Disclaimer