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8  References

Bongaarts, J and R A Bulatao (2000) Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population. (Washington DC: National Academy Press).

Booth, Heather, John Maindonald, and Len Smith (2002) "Applying Lee-Carter under conditions of variable mortality decline." Population Studies 56(3): 325-336.

Congressional Budget Office (2001) "Uncertainty in Social Security's Long-Term Finances: A Stochastic Analysis." Washington DC, Congressional Budget Office, Working Paper.

Lee, Ronald and Lawrence Carter (1992) "Modelling and Forecasting US Mortality." Journal of the American Statistical Association 87(419): 659-671.

Lee, Ronald D (1998) "Probabilistic approaches to population forecasting." in Wolfgang Lutz, James W Vaupel and Dennis A Ahlburg (eds) Frontiers of Population Forecasting (New York: The Population Council).

Lee, R and S Tuljapurkar (1994) "Stochastic projections for the United States: Beyond high, medium, and low." Journal of the American Statistical Association 89(428): 1175-1189.

Lutz, Wolfgang and Sergei Scherbov (1998) "An expert-based framework for national population projections: The example of Austria." European Journal of Population 14(1): 1-17.

Lutz, Wolfgang, James W Vaupel and Dennis A Ahlburg (1998) Frontiers of Population Forecasting. (New York: The Population Council).

Lutz, Wolfgang, Warren Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov (2001) "The end of world population growth." Nature 412: 543-545.

OECD (1998) Maintaining Prosperity in an Ageing Society. (Paris and Washington, DC: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development).

Siegel, Jacob S (2002) Applied Demography: Applications to Business, Government, Law, and Public Policy. (San Diego: Academic Press).

Statistics New Zealand, ‘Demographic Trends 2001: All Tables’. Document downloaded from Statistics New Zealand website www.stats.govt.nz in August 2002.

Statistics New Zealand, ‘National Population Projections, 1999(base)-2101: All Tables’ Document downloaded from Statistics New Zealand website www.stats.govt.nz in August 2002.

Statistics New Zealand, ‘Key demographic indicators, 1999-2002’. Page on Statistics New Zealand website www.stats.govt.nz. Document downloaded in April 2003.

Tuljapurkar, Shripad (1992) "Stochastic population forecasts and their uses." International Journal of Forecasting 8(3): 385-91.

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