2.4 Geographical differences
As Figure 3 shows, the recently developed countries (RDCs) have experienced the highest fertility levels in the OECD. New Zealand has, however, had the highest baby boom fertility rates of the non-RDCs shown, though in the decades since the baby boom New Zealand has had similar rates to North America, and only slightly higher rates than Australia. The UN’s median projection implies substantial convergence over coming decades, except that New Zealand, Australia, the RDCs, and North America are assumed to maintain slightly higher fertility than Europe and Japan.
- Figure 3 – Estimates and median variant projections of total fertility rates, OECD countries and regions
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- Source: Calculated from data from the UN Population Division’s World Population Prospects online database.
Figure 4 presents estimates and projections for life expectancy. With the exception of Japan and the RDCs, the expectancies are tightly bunched. One demographer even suggests that the group of the 21 biggest and most industrialized countries “is behaving increasingly as if it had a single mortality pattern” (White 2002: 74). The UN assumes that life expectancy will continue to grow faster in Japan that in other wealthy countries. Some demographers have, however, questioned this assumption (Wilmoth 1998; White 2002). The UN estimates that in recent years, New Zealand has had net inward migration levels of 1 to 2 per thousand. The corresponding figures are 3 to 5 per thousand in Australia and North America, 1 to 2 per thousand in Europe, 0 to 1 per thousand in Japan, and –2 to –1 per thousand in the RDCs. The UN assumes that migration will continue at approximately these levels.
Geographical differences in population sizes and growth rates are shown in Table 1. Fertility rates over the period 1950-2000 are clearly reflected in population growth rates. The RDCs have grown fastest, followed by Australia, New Zealand, and North America, followed by Japan and Europe. Over the period 2000-2050, the populations of the RDCs, Australia, New Zealand, and North America are projected to continue growing, while the populations of Japan and Europe are projected to shrink. New Zealand’s projected growth rate is smaller than that of Australia and North America because New Zealand is assumed to attract less migration. Growth rates differ sufficiently over the period 1950-2050 for the ranking of countries and regions by total population to change: North America overtakes Europe, and the RDCs overtake Japan.
- Figure 4 – Estimates and projections of life expectancy, OECD countries and regions
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- Source: Calculated from data from the UN Population Division’s World Population Prospects online database.
Geographical differences in trends in age structure are summarised Figure 5. Panel (i) indicates that the countries with the highest fertility rates have the highest proportions in the youngest age group. As Panel (iii) shows, the reverse is true for the oldest age group. Panel (ii) portrays a more complicated situation. Roughly speaking, the countries with the highest fertility initially have the lowest proportion in the working ages, until around 2010, the order reverses and these countries have the highest proportion in the working ages. This reversal occurs because a decline in fertility initially raises but then lowers the population in the working ages.
In all three panels of Figure 5, New Zealand’s trajectory is very similar to that of Australia and North America. This immediately suggests that any effects that age structure per se has on economic growth will not greatly help nor hinder New Zealand relative to these two places.
