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Demographic Change and New Zealand's Economic Growth - WP 03/04

Publication Details

  • Demographic Change and New Zealand's Economic Growth
  • Published: Jun 2003
  • Status: Current
  • Author: Bryant, John
  • JEL Classification: J1
  • Hard copy: Available in HTML and PDF formats only.
 

Demographic Change and New Zealand’s Economic Growth

New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 03/04

Published June 2003

Author: John Bryant

Abstract

New Zealand has, by OECD standards, high birth rates. This has provided New Zealand with a relatively young population and continuing labour force growth. Both these features are, on many accounts, good for economic growth. Yet most discussions of New Zealand’s economic performance and its prospects for moving up the OECD income distribution have paid little attention to demography.

This paper defines “demography” narrowly as population size, growth, and age-structure, and examines the likely effects on New Zealand’s growth rate in GDP per capita, relative to the rest of the OECD. The first part of the paper gives a broad overview of trends in population size and age structure in New Zealand and elsewhere in the OECD. The second part describes selected demographic trends in more detail and discusses their economic significance. The overall conclusion is that future demographic trends are likely to provide New Zealand with a small advantage, relative to the rest of the OECD.

Contents

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Abstract

Table of Contents

List of Tables

List of Figures

1 Introduction

2 Overview of demographic trends

3 Effects on growth in GDP per capita

4 Conclusion

References

twp03-04.pdf (232 KB) pp. 1–23

List of Tables

List of Figures

Acknowledgements

Thank you to Bob Buckle, Veronica Jacobsen, and Ian Pool for detailed suggestions. Thank you also to colleagues in the Policy Coordination Development Section, and participants at a Treasury seminar, for comments and questions.

Disclaimer

The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the New Zealand Treasury. The paper is presented not as policy, but with a view to inform and stimulate wider debate.

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