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References

Alho, Juha M (1997) "Scenarios, uncertainty and conditional forecasts of the world population." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 160(1): 71-85.

Alvarado, Jose and John Creedy (1998) Population ageing, migration and social expenditure. ( Northampton, Mass.: Elgar).

Auerbach, Alan and Kevin Hassett (2000) "Uncertainty and the design of long-run fiscal policy." in Alan Auerbach and Ronald Lee eds Demography and fiscal policy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press): 73-97. <http://papers.nber.org/papers/>

Bagrie, Cameron (1997) "The long term fiscal impact of an aging population in New Zealand." Wellington, New Zealand Treasury, Draft Paper.

Buckle, R A, K Kim and J Tam (2001) "A structural VAR approach to estimating budget balance targets." Wellington, The Treasury, 01/11. <http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-policy/wp/2001/01-11>

Congressional Budget Office (2001) "Uncertainty in social security's long-term finances: A stochastic analysis." Washington DC, Congressional Budget Office, Working Paper, December 2001. <http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=3235&sequence=0&from=7>

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Creedy, John (2000) "The growth of social expenditure and population ageing." Economic Papers 19(4): 15-32.

Creedy, John and Jose Alvarado (1998) "Social expenditure projections: A stochastic approach." Australian Economic Papers 37(3): 203-212. <http://www.blackwellpublishers.co.uk/asp/journal.asp?ref=0004900x>

Dalziel, Paul and Ralph Lattimore (2001) The New Zealand macroeconomy: A briefing on the reforms and their legacy. (Auckland: Oxford University Press).

Daponte, Beth Osborne, Joseph B Kadane and Lara J Wolfson (1997) "Bayesian demography:Projecting the iraqi kurdish population, 1977-1990." Journal of the American Statistical Association 92(440): 1256-1267.

Davis, Nick and Richard Fabling (2002) "Population aging and the efficiency of fiscal policy in New Zealand." Wellington, New Zealand Treasury, Working Paper 02/11. <http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-policy/wp/2002/02-11>

de Beer, Joop (1992) "Uncertainty variants of population forecasts." Statistical Journal of the United Nations 9: 233-253.

Diewert, E and Denis Lawrence (1999) "Measuring New Zealand's productivity." Wellington, New Zealand Treasury. <http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-policy/wp/1999/99-05>

Downing, Richard, Nathan McLellan, Kam Szeto and John Janssen (2002) "Trend growth in New Zealand: An exploration of recent developments and prospects." Wellington, The Treasury, Unpublished.

Guest, Ross S and Ian M McDonald (2000) "Population ageing and projections of government social outlays in Australia." Australian Economic Review 33(1): 49-64. <http://www.blackwellpublishers.co.uk/asp/journal.asp?ref=00049018>

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Lee, Ronald and Ryan Edwards (2001) "The fiscal impact of aging in the US: Assessing the uncertainties." Washington DC, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper prepared for the NBER Tax Policy and the Economy Meeting., November 5.

Lee, Ronald and Timothy Miller (2001) "An approach to forecasting health expenditures, with application to the US medicare system." Berkeley, CA, University of California, A paper prepared for the workshop on Population Ageing and Health, January 2001. <http://www.demog.berkeley.edu/~tmiller>

Lee, Ronald and Shripad Tuljapurkar (2000) "Population forecasting for fiscal planning: Issues and innovations." in Alan Auerbach and Ronald Lee eds Demography and fiscal policy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press): 7-72. <http://www.demog.berkeley.edu/>

Mayhew, Leslie (2000a) "Health and elderly care expenditure in an aging world." Laxenburg, Institutional Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, September 2000. <www.iiasa.ac.at>

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Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2000) "Public finance implications of ageing: Background and issues." Paris, OECD, ECO/CPE/WP1(2000)1, 3 January.

Polackova, Hana (1997) "Population ageing and financing of government liabilities in New Zealand." Washington DC, The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 1703, February.

Statistics New Zealand (2000) "New Zealand population projections: 1999(base) - 2101." Wellington, Statistics New Zealand, 30 June 2000. <http://www.stats.govt.nz/domino/external/pasfull/pasfull.nsf/web/Reference+Reports+New+Zealand+Population+Projections+1999(base)-2101?open>

Stephenson, John and Grant Scobie (2002) "Economics of population ageing." Wellington, New Zealand Treasury, Working Paper 02/05. <http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-policy/wp/2002/02-05>

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