2.2  Teenage pregnancy

The teenage birth rate in New Zealand is relatively high by OECD standards, though lower than in Britain and the USA (Figure 3). Maori and Pacific Island young women are much more likely to become pregnant than other ethnic groups.[6] The teenage pregnancy rate appears to have risen since 1984.

Figure 3 – Teenage birth rates in selected countries

Source: Statistics New Zealand (2001).

The teenage birth rate in New Zealand has been relatively stable since the early 1980s, after a steady decline from a peak in 1972 (Table 1). In 2000, the teenage birth rate was 29 births per 1,000 young women.[7] The Maori teenage birth rate has been between around two-and-a-half times higher than the overall teenage birth rate and in 2000 was 69 births per 1,000 young women. Maori women have a higher total birth rate (taken across all ages), and higher age-specific birth rates up to age 30.

Source: Statistics New Zealand (2001).

The teenage pregnancy rate, as opposed to the teenage birth rate, has been rising since 1984 and in 2000, was estimated as 60 pregnancies per 1,000 young women (Dickson, Rimene and Paul 2000).[8] Maori teenagers are nearly three times more likely than European teenagers to become pregnant and Pacific Island teenagers are 2.4 times more likely (Dickson et al 2000). It is unclear whether the increase in estimated teenage pregnancy rates, and the difference between ethnic groups, is due to more sexual activity, or less use of effective contraception. A number of New Zealand studies have shown that a significant proportion of high school students do not use contraception at all, or not on all occasions of sexual intercourse. It is likely that 30% to 40% of first sexual experiences do not involve any form of contraception (Hodges, Maskill, Coulson, Christie and Quigley 1998). A total of 29% of the young women in the CHDS reported having unprotected consensual intercourse on at least one occasion by the age of 18 (Fergusson, Horwood and Lynskey 1997).

At age 16, a quarter of the Christchurch cohort and 30% of the Dunedin cohort reported having had sex and 16% of young people in the DMHDS (Dickson, Paul, Herbison and Silva 1998, Lynskey and Fergusson 1993). In the CHDS, Maori and Pacific teenagers, and those from disadvantaged families, were more likely to have had sexual intercourse at a younger age than the rest of the cohort (Lynskey and Fergusson 1993). By age 21, over a quarter of the women in the CHDS had been pregnant at least once, and 14% had become parents. A range of factors was associated with an increased risk of early pregnancy, specifically conduct disorders in early adolescence, poor school achievement, family adversity, early onset sexual intercourse and Maori ethnicity (Fergusson, Horwood and Woodward 2001). Daughters of young lone mothers were themselves at high risk of going on to be young mothers.

2.3  Educational underachievement

Participation rates in education from early childhood through to post-compulsory schooling are high in New Zealand. The main issues are the proportion of each age group that leaves school without a qualification and the proportion of poor achievers on standard numeracy and literacy assessments by international standards. International studies show that the average knowledge and skills of New Zealand secondary school pupils are relatively high and that the best performing groups rival any in the world, but that there is a long “tail” of low achievers.

The National Education Monitoring Project (NEMP) indicates that girls outperformed boys on a substantial percentage of tasks, particularly in writing and reading; Maori students performed less well than non-Maori students in most curriculum areas, the exception being physical education; and with exceptions in physical education and art, students in low decile schools performed poorly (Flockton and Crooks 1999). Data from the CHDS cohort shows that females achieved, on average, better educational outcomes than males, with males more prone to disruptive, inattentive or distracting classroom behaviours that impede learning (Fergusson and Horwood 1997).

The Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) in 1994/95 and a subsequent follow-up (TIMSS-R) showed a broad range of achievement across participating countries. The performance of New Zealand students was generally average or above average (Table 2).[9]

Notes: Differences from the international average reported in this table are statistically significant.

Sources: Martin (1997), Mullis (1997), Beaton (1997a), Beaton (1997b), Mullis (1998), Martin (2000) and Mullis (2000)

Within New Zealand, TIMSS showed no significant differences in mathematics or science achievement between primary-school-aged girls and boys (Martin et al 1997, Mullis et al 1997). In Forms 2 and 3, however, boys scored significantly more highly in science achievement (Beaton et al 1997a).[10] In the last year of school, boys scored more highly in both science and mathematics literacy (Mullis et al 1998). In the primary school and early secondary school studies, European and Asian students tested in TIMSS had higher scores in both mathematics and science than students of Maori or Pacific Island ethnicity (Statistics New Zealand 1999).

The OECD PISA study of 15-year-old students’ performance in reading literacy, mathematical literacy and scientific literacy confirmed those from TIMSS in indicating that the knowledge and skills of New Zealand secondary school students is, on average, relatively high by international standards (OECD 2001b).

However, while New Zealand had high mean scores in each of the domains of literacy, it had a wide distribution of scores. New Zealand had the second greatest variation in reading literacy, and the sixth greatest in scientific literacy and mathematical literacy.[11] In New Zealand, more than in any other country, the variation in performance was within individual schools rather than between schools. The lowest quartile of students in New Zealand still did relatively well by international standards, but the disparities in test scores indicate a degree of underachievement by some groups of students. Within New Zealand, girls had a higher average reading literacy score than boys, but average scores for scientific and mathematical literacy were similar (OECD 2001a).

Just over 10,000 students – 18.7% of those who left school in 2000 – left with no qualifications.[12] This proportion has remained reasonably constant over the past decade (Ministry of Education 2002b). In addition, 3,200 students were granted exemptions to leave school before turning 16 years old, and almost all of these students were likely to have left with no qualifications (therefore making up around 30% of school leavers with no qualifications).

Males were much more likely than females to have left school with no qualifications. Maori and Pacific students were also over-represented amongst school leavers with no qualifications. Students from schools in the highest socio-economic decile were least likely to leave with no qualifications (Table 3).[13]

Source: Ministry of Education (2002a).

Members of the CHDS cohort who left school with no formal qualifications were found to be at increased risk of a number of poor outcomes at age 21. After adjustment for confounding social, family and individual factors, there remained significant associations between leaving school with no qualifications and nicotine dependence, receiving a benefit, and having no training or education after leaving school. Apparent associations between leaving school with no qualifications and juvenile offending and substance abuse were explained by covariates such as deviant peer affiliations at an earlier age (Fergusson, Swain-Campbell and Horwood, in press).