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Modelling Regional Labour Market Adjustment in New Zealand (WP 02/01)
WP 02/01. Authors: Wai Kin Choy, Peter Mawson and David (Dave) C Maré. This paper adopts a vector autoregressive (VAR) approach to analyse the labour market adjustment mechanisms for 12 New Zealand regions over the period 1985 to 2001.
Saving in New Zealand: Measurement and Trends (WP 02/02)
WP 02/02. Authors: Iris Claus and Grant M Scobie. This paper examines the trends in saving in New Zealand. It considers different sources of information about saving and highlights issues with the measurement of saving.
Subsidiarity: Implications for New Zealand (WP 02/03)
WP 02/03. Author: Kevin Guerin. Subsidiarity requires taking decisions at the level of government best placed to do so, but does not say what that level is. Rather, it gives a broad framework within which to have the debate.
Long-term fiscal projections and their relationship with the intertemporal budget constraint: An application to New Zealand (WP 02/04)
WP 02/04. Author: John Janssen. The fiscal gap calculates the change in fiscal policy settings needed to achieve a particular debt target at some point in the future. This working paper calculates fiscal gaps for New Zealand under a range of scenarios, including alternative spending growth, debt targets and interest rates.
The Economics of Population Ageing (WP 02/05)
WP 02/05. Authors: John Stephenson and Grant M Scobie. Demographic forecasts predict that over the next fifty years the proportion of people in New Zealand over the age of 65 will more than double, from 12 percent in 1999 to 26 percent in 2050. This paper reviews potential economic implications of this demographic change in the following broad categories: Demographic change, Labour Markets, Fiscal Impacts, Capital Markets, and Long-run economic growth effects.
Ethnicity and Early Labour Market Experiences in the Christchurch Health and Development Study (WP 02/06)
WP 02/06. Author: Tim Maloney. This study uses data from the Christchurch Health and Development Study to investigate differences by ethnicity in early labour market experiences of a birth cohort born in Christchurch in 1977.
A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the New Zealand economy (WP 02/07)
WP 02/07. Author: Kam Leong Szeto. This paper documents the structure and key properties of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the New Zealand economy.
Growth and Volatility Regime Switching Models for New Zealand GDP Data (WP 02/08)
WP 02/08. Authors: Peter Thomson, David Haugh and Bob (Robert) A Buckle. This paper fits hidden Markov switching models to New Zealand GDP data. A primary objective is to better understand the utility of these methods for modelling growth and volatility regimes present in the New Zealand data and their interaction.
Inter industry linkages in New Zealand (WP 02/09)
WP 02/09. Author: Iris Claus. This paper investigates the production structure of the New Zealand business sector using the recently released 1996 input output tables. The analysis is undertaken at the most disaggregated level for which data are available, 126 industries.
Growing Pains: New Zealand Qualitative Evidence on Hurdles to Exporting Growth (WP 02/10)
WP 02/10. Author: Geoff Simmons. This paper surveys qualitative evidence with the aim of identifying consistent issues surrounding the growth of New Zealand firms.
Population Ageing and the Efficiency of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand (WP 02/11)
WP 02/11. Authors: Richard Fabling and Nick Davis. New Zealand's ageing population is expected to have a significant impact on long-term government expenditure, particularly in the areas of health and superannuation. From the perspective of economic efficiency, we consider several methods for financing that expenditure.
Institutions, Social Norms and Well-being (WP 02/12)
WP 02/12. Author: Murray Petrie. This paper discusses the intrinsic and instrumental value of governance and social norms to the well being of New Zealanders. The interaction between informal social norms and formal institutions is also discussed.
How many jobs? A leading indicator model of New Zealand employment (WP 02/13)
WP 02/13. Authors: Edda Claus and Iris Claus. This paper constructs a composite index of leading indicators of New Zealand employment.
Measuring Economic Growth in New Zealand (WP 02/14)
WP 02/14. Author: Peter Mawson. This paper examines New Zealand's ranking in the OECD based on real GDP per capita. The fall in ranking experienced by New Zealand implies that real GDP per capita growth in New Zealand has been relatively poor in comparison to other OECD countries.
Striking a Balance: Centralised and Decentralised Decisions in Government (WP 02/15)
WP 02/15. Author: Natalie Brady. This paper identifies factors to be looked at when considering the extent to which decisions within government should be centralised or decentralised.
New Zealand's Family Assistance Tax Credits: Evolution and Operation (WP 02/16)
WP 02/16. Author: Patrick Nolan. The Family Assistance Tax Credits provide income-tested (and in some cases work-tested) financial assistance for families with financially dependent children who are living at home. This paper describes the evolution and operation of the Family Assistance programmes
Education and Maori Relative Income Levels over Time: The Mediating Effect of Occupation, Industry, Hours of Work and Locality (WP 02/17)
WP 02/17. Author: Sholeh A Maani. This paper examines ethnic differences in the relationship between educational attainment and income in New Zealand over the period 1986 to 1996.
Protection against Government Takings: Compensation for Regulation? (WP 02/18)
WP 02/18. Author: Kevin Guerin. The paper responds to recent debate in New Zealand on the power of the government to take private property, directly or through regulatory constraints.
Modelling New Zealand Consumption Expenditure over the 1990s (WP 02/19)
WP 02/19. Authors: Richard Downing and Khoon Lek Goh. This paper presents two models of consumption for the primary purpose of forecasting consumption expenditure growth in New Zealand.
Institutions and Decision Making for Sustainable Development (WP 02/20)
WP 02/20. Author: Richard Ellis. A framework for considering the quality of institutional structures vis-a-vis achieving sustainable development is presented. The framework is applied to aspects of the Resource Management Act 1991.
Determining the Discount Rate for Government Projects (WP 02/21)
WP 02/21. Author: Louise Young. Discount rates are widely used in the public sector to assess policy proposals where costs and benefits accrue over long time periods. Socially optimal policy choices require an appropriate choice of discount rate. This paper assesses the applicability of the two key theoretical approaches to selecting discount rates in the public sector.
Income Tax Revenue Elasticities with Endogenous Labour Supply (WP 02/22)
WP 02/22. Authors: Norman Gemmell and John Creedy. It is important for the design of tax policy to be able to measure reliably the income elasticity of tax revenue. This gives the extent to which tax revenues change as a result of a change in earnings.
Investing in Well-being: An Analytical Framework (WP 02/23)
WP 02/23. Authors: Veronica Jacobsen, Ron Crawford, Paul Christoffel, Nicholas Mays and Barbara Annesley. The paper presents evidence from a review of the literature on how the process and experiences of childhood have a later impact on well-being; how child development and outcomes are influenced by individual, family and communal factors and how risk and resilience can be used to indicate that an individual is at increased or decreased risk of negative outcomes.
Publicly Financed Education in an Endogenous Growth Model (WP 02/24)
WP 02/24. Authors: Norman Gemmell and John Creedy. This paper constructs an endogenous growth model, applicable largely to developing countries, based on human capital accumulation in which education is publicly provided and financed, and schooling is compulsory.
Consumption Externalities and the Role of Government: The Case of Alcohol (WP 02/25)
WP 02/25. Author: Felicity Barker. This paper considers the role of government in the case of externalities and, in particular, in the case of alcohol externalities. The purpose of the paper is to assess whether the current level of the alcohol excise can be justified on externality grounds.
A structural VAR model of the New Zealand business cycle (WP 02/26)
WP 02/26. Authors: Nathan McLellan, Kunhong Kim, Jared Sharma, Heather Kirkham and Bob (Robert) A Buckle. This paper develops a new open economy structural VAR model of the New Zealand economy.
An Analysis of a Cash Flow Tax for Small Business (WP 02/27)
WP 02/27. Author: Peter Wilson. This paper analyses whether it might be possible to design a cash flow tax (CFT) for small businesses in New Zealand to replace the existing income tax.
Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections (WP 02/28)
WP 02/28. Authors: John Creedy and Grant M Scobie. It is widely recognised that as the population ages there will be potentially significant implications for a wide range of economic variables, including in particular the fiscal costs of social expenditures. Long term fiscal planning requires estimates of the possible future path of public spending. This paper presents projections for 14 categories of social spending.
Low Wage Jobs and Pathways to Better Outcomes (WP 02/29)
WP 02/29. Authors: Sue Richardson and Lauren Miller-Lewis. An issue of vital social interest is the speed with which low wage workers move on to better jobs. This review of the international literature finds that the extent of mobility depends on the definition of low wage, and that the least upwardly mobile are older, less educated workers, including middle aged women, sole mothers and men who have been retrenched. The paper goes on to examine the extent and sources of wage mobility, and looks carefully at the question of whether a low wage job can be assumed to be preferable to no job.
Indicators of Fiscal Impulse for New Zealand (WP 02/30)
WP 02/30. Authors: Renee Philip and John Janssen. This paper defines fiscal impulse as a measure of whether government fiscal policy decisions are adding to, or subtracting from, aggregate demand pressures in the economy. When assessing the effects of fiscal policy on the economy it can be useful to have an approximate estimate of fiscal impulse.