Introduction

Risk and uncertainty are pervasive in environmental policy decision-making.

Risk and uncertainty are pervasive in regulatory and policy decision-making. The purpose of this paper is to better define risk and assess whether a more generic and consistent approach to environmental risk management in New Zealand is required.

There is a range of risk management standards and procedures in place, both overseas and in New Zealand. The focus of this study is on situations where there is a high degree of uncertainty and the possibility of irreversibility. Many policy decisions involving the environment and use of natural resources have these characteristics. The precautionary principle has been developed as a means of avoiding danger to human health and the environment.

Lack of clarity around the interpretation of the precautionary principle causes problems – it could stifle economic development and innovation.

While there has been rapid growth in the adoption of the precautionary principle in international agreements and the laws of many countries, including New Zealand, it remains very controversial. The precautionary principle is open to wide interpretation as to what it actually means and when and how it should be applied. This poses a number of problems, including the potential for significant costs to society through stifling economic development and technological innovation. The likelihood of these problems arising depends on the way the principle is formulated and implemented.

A more generic framework could help manage risk and uncertainty and minimise costs.

Considering the precautionary principle in the context of a more generic risk management framework could assist in determining when the principle should be applied and, if so, how it could be implemented to manage risk and uncertainty while avoiding or minimising potential economic costs.

This paper explores:

• key concepts related to risk and uncertainty and the precautionary principle
• the need for a more generic risk management framework to assist with decision-making under uncertainty, based on appropriate information, using an integrated approach and guidelines to address uncertainties in the policy response
• the main definitions, interpretations and criticisms of the precautionary principle
• how risk and uncertainty are currently being addressed within regulatory regimes in New Zealand through the use of the precautionary principle
• how risk and uncertainty are being managed overseas in the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia
• whether there are guidelines that could form the basis for a more generic risk management framework that could be applied across a range of specific regimes in New Zealand (ie, hazardous substances and new organisms, including genetically modified organisms and the Oceans Strategy).