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References

Aprile, R. (2004), “How to take account of death-related costs in projecting health care expenditure – updated version.” Ragioneria Generale Dello Stato.

Australian Productivity Commission (2005), Economic Implications of an Ageing Australia, Research Report, Canberra, April.

Barro, Robert (1990) “Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth.” The Journal of Political Economy 98(5) Part 2.

Bjornerud, Simen, and Joaquim Oliveira Martins (2005) “Disentangling demographic and non-demographic drivers of health spending: a possible methodology and data requirements.” OECD Economics Department.

Bryant, John (2003) "Can population projections be used for sensitivity tests on policy models?" New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 03/07.

Bryant, John (2003) “The Ageing of the New Zealand Population, 1881-2051.” New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 03/27.

Bryant, John (2003) “Demographic Change and New Zealand’s Economic Growth.” New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 03/04.

Bryant, John, Audrey Teasdale, Martin Tobias, Jit Cheung and Mhairi McHugh (2004) “Population Ageing and Government Health Expenditures in New Zealand, 1951-2051.” New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 04/14.

Burniaux, Jean-Marc, Romain Duval and Florence Jaumotte (2003) “Coping with Ageing: A Dynamic Approach to Quantifying the Impact of Alternative Policy Options on Future Labour Supply in OECD Countries.” OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 371.

Callister, Paul (2005) “The Changing Gender Distribution of Paid and Unpaid Work in New Zealand.” New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 05/06.

Commonwealth of Australia (2002) “Intergenerational Report 2002-03.” 2002-03 Budget Paper No. 5, May.

Congressional Budget Office (2005), “The Long-Term Budget Outlook.” The Congress of the United States, December.

Cutler, David, Angus Deaton and Adriana Lleras-Muney (2006) “The Determinants of Mortality.” NBER Working Paper Series 11963, January.

Dang, Thai Than, Pablo Antolin and Howard Oxley (2001), “Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending.” Economics Department Working Paper No. 305.

Davis, Nick and Richard Fabling (2002) “Population Ageing and the Efficiency of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand New Zealand.” New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 02/11.

Dunstan, Kim and Richard Speirs (2005) “Experimental Stochastic Projections of New Zealand’s Population.” Statistics New Zealand, December.

Economic Policy Committee (2001) “Budgetary challenges posed by ageing populations.” EPC/ECFIN/EPC/655//01-EN, European Commission.

Economic Policy Committee (2004) “Illustrative Long Run Projections for the EU15 and AC10 Countries up to 2050.” ECFIN/214/04-EN.

Economic Policy Committee (2006), “The impact of ageing on public expenditure: projections for the EU25 Member States on pensions, health care, long-term care, education and unemployment transfers (2004-2050).” European Economy Special Report No. 1/2006, February.

Graham, Patrick, Tony Blakeley, Peter Davis, Andrew Sporle and Neil Pearce (2004) “Compression, expansion, or dynamic equilibrium? The evolution of health expectancy in New Zealand.” J. Epidemiology and Community Health, 58, 659-666.

Gruen, David, and Matthew Garbutt (2004) “The long term fiscal implications of raising Australian labour force participation or productivity growth.” Australian Treasury Working Paper 2004-01.

Guest, Ross, Grant Scobie and John Bryant (2003) “Population Ageing in New Zealand: The Impact on Living Standards and the Optimal Rate of Saving with a Flexible Real Exchange Rate.” New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 03/34.

Guest, Ross, Grant Scobie and John Bryant (2003) “Population Ageing in New Zealand - Implications for Living Standards and the Optimal Rate of Saving.” New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 03/10.

Heller, Peter S (2002) "Considering the long-term in formulating fiscal policy." Internal paper for the New Zealand Treasury.

HM Treasury (2005) “Long-term public finance report: an analysis of fiscal sustainability.” This has been an annual report since 2002.

Hurnard, Roger (2005) “The Effect of New Zealand Superannuation Eligibility Age on the Labour Force Participation of Older People.” New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 05/09.

IMF (2004) “How will demographic change affect the global economy?” Chapter III in World Economic Outlook: The Global Demographic Transition, IMF Washington, September.

Janssen, John (2002) “Long-term Fiscal Projections and their Relationship with the Intertemporal Budget Constraint: An Application to New Zealand.” New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 02/04.

Johnston, Grant, (2005) “Women’s Participation in the Labour Force.” New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 05/06.

Lee, Ronald and Lawrence Carter (1992) “Modelling and Forecasting the Time Series of U.S. Mortality.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419) 659-71, September.

Lee, Ronald (2003) “The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 17(4), 167–190.

Lee, Ronald (2004) "Quantifying our ignorance: Stochastic forecasts of population and public budgets." University of California.

Lee, Ronald, Michael Anderson and Shripad Tuljapurkar (2003) "Stochastic forecasts of the social security trust fund." Report for the Social Security Administration.

Martins, Joaquim Oliveira, Christine de la Maisonneuve (2005) “Projecting OECD health and long-term care expenditures: What are the main drivers?” OECD Economics Department, ECO/CPE/WP1(2005)14.

Montanino, Andrea, Bartosz Przywara and David Young (2004) “Investment in education: the implications for economic growth and public finances.” European Commission.

OECD (2001) “OECD Best Practices for Budget Transparency.” OECD, May.

Oeppen, Jim and James W. Vaupel (2002) “Broken limits to life expectancy.” Science.

Olshansky, S. Jay, Douglas J. Passaro, Ronald C. Hershow, Jennifer Layden, Bruce A. Carnes, Jacob Brody, Leonard Hayflick, Robert N. Butler, David B. Allison, and David S. Ludwig (2005) “A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21st Century.” The New England Journal of Medicine 352(11), March.

Stephenson, John and Grant Scobie (2002) “The Economics of Population Ageing.” New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 02/05.

The New Zealand Treasury (2005), “Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2005.” B6, December.

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