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Modelling New Zealand's Long-term Fiscal Position - PP 06/01

Publication Details

  • Modelling New Zealand's Long-term Fiscal Position
  • Published: Mar 2006
  • Status: Current
  • Authors: Rodway, Paul; Wilson, Peter
  • Hard copy: Available in HTML and PDF formats only.

Modelling New Zealand’s Long-term Fiscal Position

New Zealand Policy Perspectives Paper 06/01

Published: February 2006

Authors: Paul Rodway and Peter Wilson

Table of Contents

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1. Introduction

2. How we see the task at hand

3. Who will populate New Zealand?

4. What will people be doing?

5. What will governments be doing?

6. Conclusions


tpp06-01.pdf (367 KB) pp. 54


We would like to thank our colleagues in Treasury’s Financial Policy and Tax Modelling team, especially Dasha Leonova and Nathan McLellan for all the work they did producing the probabilistic projections in this paper.

Bob Buckle, Patrick Conway, John Janssen, Dasha Leonova, Struan Little, Michele Lloyd, Nathan McLellan and Brendon Riches provided numerous helpful comments.

We are also grateful for comments by external readers of early drafts: John Bryant, Kim Dunstan, Frank Eich and Paal Ulla.


The views, opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Policy Perspectives Paper are strictly those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the New Zealand Treasury.  The Treasury takes no responsibility for any errors or omissions in, or for the correctness of, the information contained in these Policy Perspectives Papers. The paper is presented not as policy, but to inform and stimulate wider debate.

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