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Appendix 3: Dial graphs

Many children appear to have what we would call “poor starts” in life, but proceed to be at good levels of the education system or in relatively well-paid employment by their early twenties. We were interested in how much the linked administrative data can tell us about the differences between these children and those that end up less educated, not employed and/or in less well-paying employment.

To begin to address this we separated out the 1993 cohort into those whose family was supported by welfare at their birth and those whose families were not supported by welfare at their birth. Then we looked at “on track” rates for these children when they had also experienced each of a series of life events later in their life.

A selection of these rates (see Appendix Table 4) are presented in a dial graph format in Burton et al (2016). The dials present the proportion of children who are “on track at 21” and shows this for children who experience a particular life event (or change in circumstance) and those who did not. The difference between these proportions (the grey area), represents the size of the association we observe between the ‘on track' outcome and the adverse childhood event.

Appendix Figure 1 - ‘On track at 21’ dial graphs
  Proportion who are on track at 21
  For children where family was supported by benefit at birth
Event:
Caregiver corrections sentence (whilst child aged 0 - 4 years)
Event:
Changed high school at least once
Event:
Child spent 1 night in hospital aged 5 to 12
Event:
Parent before aged 20

A more comprehensive list of life events and their impact on the likelihood of a person being “on track” is set out in Appendix Table 4. The events in bold correspond to the four events pictures in the dials in Appendix Figure 1.

Appendix Table 4 - Proportion 'on track at 21' and experience of other childhood events (1993 cohort)
  Supported by benefit at birth Not supported by benefit at birth
Event Experienced the event Did not experience the  event Experienced the event Did not experience the  event
Older sibling had CYF notification prior to child's birth 38.0% 54.3% 45.2% 79.4%
Caregiver had served corrections sentence prior to child's birth 41.6% 57.8% 47.3% 80.3%
Child had CYF notification prior to age 5 39.6% 57.3% 50.9% 80.3%
Family was supported by welfare at child's birth 50.9% 73.4% 58.8% 83.1%
Caregiver with corrections sentence whilst child less than 5 42.1% 60.0% 48.8% 80.8%
Child spent at least 1 night in hospital aged less than 5 48.7% 56.3% 74.3% 80.6%
Family supported by welfare whilst child aged 5 to 12 47.8% 65.6% 60.3% 83.5%
Child had CYF notification whilst aged 5 to 12 38.6% 58.7% 52.9% 81.0%
Caregiver with corrections sentence whilst child aged 5 to 12 39.6% 58.8% 47.0% 80.6%
Child spent at least 1 night in hospital whilst  aged 5 to 12 49.6% 54.5% 74.4% 80.1%
Caregiver with corrections sentence whilst child aged 13 to 17 39.3% 57.2% 47.1% 80.3%
Child had CYF notification whilst aged 13 to 17 35.9% 60.1% 49.7% 81.8%
Family supported by welfare whilst child aged 13 to 17 44.2% 60.2% 58.6% 82.0%
Child spent at least 1 night in hospital aged 13 to 17 41.8% 56.5% 69.2% 80.8%
Changed high school at least once 42.6% 60.4% 69.2% 82.7%
Left school before turning 18 47.0% 63.6% 73.6% 84.1%
Truant, suspended or stood down from school 38.5% 63.4% 57.9% 83.6%
Did not achieve NCEA level 2 equivalent 32.0% 69.9% 52.2% 86.1%
Referred to CYF Youth Justice services 30.0% 56.2% 42.6% 80.2%
Parent before aged 20 28.0% 58.2% 36.5% 81.4%
Used drug or alcohol addiction services before 20 29.6% 54.8% 46.3% 79.9%
Served Corrections sentence before age 21 28.5% 57.4% 40.5% 80.8%
Served custodial sentence before aged 21 10.0% 55.4% 16.0% 79.8%
Received welfare benefit for more than 2 years before 21 13.7% 61.2% 19.7% 82.1%
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